Well folks, at 7pm Central this evening the end of the beginning starts. Before the dust had settled from the 2004 presidential campaign speculation started as to what the historic 2008 presidential campaign would hold. First there were the candidate announcements, Sam Brownback the first Republican to announce and Tom Vilsack the first Democrat to announce. Since then both of these candidates have dropped out of the race, but others have quickly moved to the exploratory committee stage and then the campaign committee stage.
Among all the polls and straw polls the Iowa Straw Poll stood out with the anticipated Mitt Romney in first place win and the not-so-anticipated 2nd place finish of Mike Huckabee. Now we’re just hours away from the first poll that really counts, the Iowa Caucuses and several Hoosier Access Directors have handicapped how the race will go.
Here are their predictions [Below the fold], please post your predictions in a comment to this post:
Brian Sikma
First place will go to Gov. Mike Huckabee, a close second will go to Gov. Mitt Romney. If Huckabee doesn’t finish first he will be seriously hurt and if he doesn’t finish second he’s completely out of the race. He’s pinned his hopes on Iowa and with good reason, Iowa caucus goers are socially conservative and tend to put a premium on passion. Huckabee has been more successful than other candidate, except maybe Ron Paul, at generating passion among his supporters. Fred Thompson has moved into Iowa over the past few weeks and his campaign, once thought to be the hope of many voters dissatisfied with their current crop of choices, has taken some hits. The passion isn’t there like it should have been and sometimes seems that more people liked him before he got in the race than like him now that he is in the race. Thompson should finish third if he is to continue the fight, but polls are showing that not only has Senator John McCain surged to front runner nationally but he’s also gaining ground in Iowa, edging out Fred Thompson for the number three spot. I predict a McCain win in the number three spot. Fred will come in fourth and may be able to generate enough momentum to get to friendly South Carolina, where he needs to finish first. Behind Fred will be Ron Paul or Duncan Hunter and behind them will be Rudy Giuliani. Bringing up the rear will be Alan Keyes.
To sum it up
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
4) Thompson
5) Paul or Hunter
6) Whoever of the two listed for 5 didn’t get to 5
7) Giuliani
Keyes (This guy recently sent out an e-mail urging donors to give so he could qualify for federal campaign funds, that’s not very constitutionally correct.)
Josh Gillespie
1) Huckabee (just survives the Romney rundown)
2) Romney (the coif doesn’t pull it off)
3) Thompson (Thompson is happy with the placing, but it’s a very distant third)
4) McCain (Just a percentage under Thompson, but he doesn’t care too much. He wants New Hampshire)
5) Paul (The grassroots aren’t enough in Iowa…or any other state for that matter)
6) Giuliani (Only because of name recognition)
7) Hunter (Is he even still in the race?)
Keyes (Running for president is all he has left)
Jim Banks
1) Romney
2) Thompson
3) Huckabee
4) McCain
5) Paul
6) Hunter
7) Giuliani
Greg Magnuson
1) Romney
2) Huckabee
3) McCain
4) Thompson
5) Paul
6) Giuliani
7) Hunter
Bob Novak is predicting a Clinton third place finish on the Democratic side of things this evening.
Politico.com is reporting that Thompson has signaled that he wants to finish 2nd in tonight’s caucuses. In the past the wisdom was that Thompson would have to finish a competitive third in order to perform well. There are also indications that if Thompson doesn’t get in second or a close third, he may drop out and endorse his old Senate friend John McCain.
I would guess:
Huckabee
McCain
Thompson
Romney
Paul
Hunter
Guiliani
Thompson was able to create a little momentum and obviously McCain has come on very strong
Looks like I predicted the outcome correctly plus the percentage between Fred and McCain. But I never would have guessed that Huckabee would give Romney that severe butt-whoopin’ like he did.
Yup, Josh. It looks like you were the most accurate.
Click for more info
Recent Posts
Recent Comments
Recent Posts