By: Brian Sikma

How can you tell an election is nearing?  There is a rush by incumbents to fulfill campaign promises; or, in some cases, keep up with perceptions and appearances.  Whenever a politician can’t actually stay in the middle of the road, he sometimes over corrects his position and ends up with a record that looks like someone zig-zagging from side-to-side all down the road of governing.  When it comes time to exchange governing for the campaign trail, this variation of position allows the officeholder and candidate to point at numerous points on his record that indicate he can identify with the positions of each voter.  Some smart person once labeled this shifting of positions the “versatility of convictions.”

This is exactly what Senator Evan Bayh is doing right now.  After voting in favor of the TARP funding last year, and voting for the $780 billion stimulus bill this year, Bayh has now shifted into fiscal conservative mode by voting against the $410 billion ominbus spending bill and the $3.5 trillion Obama budget proposal.  On healthcare reform and climate change legislation, he has sounded his concern with ultra-liberal policies in these areas.  But when President Obama made his first judicial nomination by nominating Judge David F. Hamilton to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, Bayh promptly praised the president’s selection.  Hamilton has ties to the Indiana chapter of the ACLU and his time on the federal district court bench has been marked by very liberal-leaning decisions.  When President Bush nominated native Hoosier John Roberts to the position of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Bayh was somehow unable to support him.

But as Bayh fishes around trying to find the right stride for his re-election effort, others are looking at his job and thinking they could serve Indiana better.  One name that has been mentioned repeatedly is that of Dan Dumazich, a successful northwest Indiana and Chicago attorney and former legislator who could probably self-finance a great portion of his own Senate campaign.  Another name that has been getting traction is State Senator Marlin Stutzman (R-Howe), a successful candidate for the Indiana House and Indiana Senate.  A small business owner, farmer, former Congressional staffer, and rising star amongst conservative legislators, Stutzman has proved that he can communicate a compelling message and raise the money need to win office.

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Should he run, Stutzman won’t be a self-funder, but he would almost certainly be able to generate a broad base of enthusiasm among both fiscal and social conservatives in a primary.  Once the general election arrived, if he campaigned aggressively as he has a record of doing, he could turn a likely Bayh re-election effort into a surprising upset.  Long shot?  Yes, and Dan Quayle was a long-shot against Birch Bayh, too.  But just as Bayh Sr. trained Bayh Jr. well, there are strong similarities between Quayle and Stutzman.  Both would be  younger than the incumbent Bayh, both would have a strong rapport with all the elements of the party, and both would be aggressive campaigners.

Stutzman has already been talking to Republican and conservative leaders around the state and it will be interesting to see what happens whenever the General Assembly session ends.  As Republicans ponder who they want to represent them in a race against Bayh, they would do well to forget about who can bring the most money to the race right off the bat, and instead focus on more long-term and sustainable qualities like communication ability, conservative record, and fundraising ability.

Money matters in a political race, but it would be a mistake to nominate a potential candidate because he has the ability to pour millions of his own into the race over someone who is a better communicator and has a better track record of proven service.  If you have the right message and the right messenger, money and votes will follow.  If you have the money but a less than optimum messenger, or someone who doesn’t really embrace conservatism, you won’t get the votes needed to win.