Yesterday afternoon, it seemed like the Senate would vote on the budget and the House would vote on it Wednesday.

This would probably have been unwise; the Senate approved a budget in April that the House had already defeated, so why should the Senate stick its neck out again? Fortunately, both chambers will vote today instead; David Long appears to be learning.

And it appears that Speaker Pat “The Hair” Bauer, faced with a government shutdown and near-universal condemnation of his obstructionist course in newspaper opinion pages across the state, has blinked.

Bauer’s obstruction appears to be at an end. A budget will go to the floor of the House for a vote.

It seems likely to pass; it has always been likely that the House would approve the Senate compromise budget (or something close to it) if the Speaker would only allow a vote.

From the Indy Star:

(Read more after the leap)

A vote is expected today on a new state budget that gives Democrats and Republicans some, though not all, of what they wanted for education.

If approved by the legislature, the deal would avert a government shutdown.

House Speaker B. Patrick Bauer, D-South Bend, said the compromise shifts $54 million to the key Democratic priority of funding K-12 education — though that’s not as much as some Democrats wanted, particularly those representing urban areas.

Note the amount here; the Speaker held the budget up and nearly put the state into a crisis. And when he caved, all he got for it was $54 million in extra education funding.

The budget, estimated at $27.8 billion over two years, plus about $1 billion in federal stimulus money, also would satisfy some key Republican concerns: preserving a $1 billion surplus while also beginning a pilot program for online charter schools and providing tax credits for contributions to private-school scholarships.

Gov. Mitch Daniels, who had made preserving that surplus a priority, said he felt “pretty good” about the progress made Monday. He had good reason to: The reserves lawmakers set aside mirrored his budget proposal.

Mitch, meanwhile, has gotten everything out of the budget that he wanted; it meets all of his criteria and few if any of those put forward by the Democrats (who started off by passing a nonsensical one-year budget).

Senate GOP leaders said they expect the governor would sign off on the deal.

But not everyone was happy.

Bauer said he expects a vote on the budget today, but “whether the vote passes or not is another question.”

The Hair couldn’t control his caucus on the last night in April to enforce party discipline on the budget vote. His power doesn’t come from his ability to command the votes of his own caucus. His power comes from his ability to prevent his caucus from ever voting in the first place.

The moment they have to vote, he tends to not be able to control them. You saw that on Sine Die in April, and you’ll probably see it today, too.

House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Crawford, D-Indianapolis, one of the top negotiators on the plan, said that he would sign off on the agreement to allow it to come to a vote but that his own vote will be “no.”

Though the compromise shifts more money to Indianapolis Public Schools than an original GOP proposal called for, IPS still comes out a loser. In 2010, it would lose $8.2 million, or 2.82 percent of its state funds; and in 2011, it would lose another $12 million, or 4.25 percent of its state funds.

While I’m loath to see any decrease in education funding anywhere, it’s worth noting that these decreases stem from declining enrollments and a decision to tie education funding to students themselves rather than institutions.

“I’m disappointed. I’m discouraged,” Crawford said as he left the Statehouse Monday evening.

Interesting. Why be disappointed or discouraged?

Still, he said, he was sure the budget would pass with the votes of most or all of the 48 House Republicans, and about 15 to 20 of the 52 House Democrats.

As I said above, it’s not hard to get a compromise or a vote on reasonable legislation out of the House when the Speaker actually lets things come to the floor for a vote.

House Minority Leader Brian Bosma, R-Indianapolis, said the budget agreement reflects compromise on both sides.

“I am confident that if it comes to the floor, it will pass. It’s time to bring this special session to a close,” he said. “I believe everybody moved quite a bit, actually.”

Some moved more than others.