With five candidates running for Senate, fourteen running in the 4th Congressional District and seven in the 5th CD, we’re bound to be in for a lot of poll numbers to come from campaigns over the next nine weeks before the primary.
A few weeks ago, a 5th CD candidate came out with his own poll, from Bellwether Research showing, that Congressman Dan Burton’s re-elect numbers were low. But when Burton was taken out of the equation, a push poll showed that none of the candidates broke 16%, while “undecided” scored a whopping 43%. Turns out, that 43% ends up voting for Dan Burton.
Results from a poll taken January 20-21, 2010 and recently released by the Burton Campaign showed:
Congressman Burton currently leads his closest opponent by 34%, as the ballot currently stands at 43% Burton/9% Messer/8% McVey/8% McGoff/4% Murphy/2% Lyons and 26% undecided.
(Read more after the leap)
Burton’s all around numbers remained strong as well, while his opponents struggle to gain the kind of name ID to run an effective campaign:
Congressman Burton enjoys 97% name ID, with an image of 55% favorable/31% unfavorable
among Republican primary voters. Among base Republicans who are also very conservative – a
core primary voter group and 33% of the primary electorate – Burton’s image is an even stronger
60% fav/26% unfav.Not one of Burton’s opponents in the Republican primary has a name identification percentage
that is as high as Burton’s favorables. Luke Messer comes the closest with just 44% of the
electorate having heard of him. The other candidates’ name IDs range between 21% and 41%.As of the last FEC report, none of the Republican challengers had significant levels of cash-on-hand,
suggesting that it will be difficult for them to significantly increase their name ID and
favorables.
But this was the most telling line from the poll results:
With a large number of candidates on the ballot vying for the Republican nomination, and no
consensus building opponent, Burton is in strong shape to win the May 4 primary election.
While nothing in the current political climate is assured, the numbers bear out that Congressman Burton should emerge victorious on election day.
Of course, you may be asking yourself, why release these numbers now? And why not sooner? Simple political strategery my friends. Release positive poll numbers like this before the ballot is set and candidates may drop out narrowing the field. But release them after the filing deadline and the names on the ballot are their to stay.
Word is also that two other polls were taken in the 5th District prior to the filing deadline, yet we haven’t seen any numbers released. The challengers running understand that if any of the other 5th CD candidates had good numbers in comparison to Burton, one would want to release those numbers so as to “encourage” the others to get out. Yet Mike Murphy was the only one to release numbers and they amounted to nothing more than a push poll. It’s falls into the category of “Things that may you want to go hm”.
Burton used the same polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, that was used by Republican Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, and Republican Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown in their most recent victorious campaigns.
Candidate funds poll that shows positive results to said candidate.
Why are people constantly surprised that this happens?
That’s an overly generalized statement and, for the most part, factually incorrect. Polls serve many rolls for candidates. Candidates do polling to see where they stand (i.e Name ID, find out their positives/negatives) in the district or state in which they are running and to see what the main issues are on the minds of the voters. Those numbers give them a baseline in terms of how to proceed over the course of the campaign. Additional polling is done along the way to see if what is being done on the campaign is having any effect on the electorate. Polling is also done to gauge the general mood of the district or state.
And, of course, polling is used as a campaign tactic. In the case of Scott Brown, polling was done routinely (mostly due to the truncated election cycle) as the increasingly positive results were used against Martha Coakley, in a sense, to get inside her head. In the end, many things were Coakley’s undoing, but positive poll results for Scott Brown along the way to election day got into Coakley’s head and affected the way she campaigned.
When someone pays me, I have an incentive to please my employer so I can get them as a returning customer.
Josh, think about this: Daily Kos hires independent polling companies. But do you really think Daily Kos will publish a poll on their web site that doesn’t deliver the answers they expect?
Don’t hold a different standard just because it’s a Republican paying for a poll.
Could polling and other methods of surveying be used to held identify to a politician what issues voters are concerned about? Sure, that’s a legitmate poll. However, I don’t for a second expect honest answers from a poll on a politicans approval rating or popularity if he or she is paying for it.
That’s fine. It’s only a background in political science, almost 10 years of experience that tell me that, plus the fact that pollsters are completely useless if they only tell you what your want to hear, but you are free to choose to believe what you want to. I’ve stated my case and you’ve stated yours. We’ll have to agree to disagree.
Telling you want to hear isnt necessary in a push poll where the survey is designed to lead those being polled to a certain conclusion. You don’t need to manipulate results when the survey itself and the way it’s being conducted are all but guaranteed to deliver the numbers you/your employer want.
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