A short two years after Indiana Democrats made history with their presidential candidate carrying Indiana for the first time since 1964, their gains in federal politics in Indiana may come to an end this fall. Of course, at the state level Democrats have absorbed some pretty tough losses, some partially as the result of self-inflicted wounds (like Jill Long Thompson) and some simply because Republican candidates ran better campaigns. Yesterday, I highlighted the problems that Rep. Donnelly is facing in his second re-election bid, and today I thought I would follow that up by talking about the ground that Rep. Baron Hill (D-9^th) is losing.

Republican Todd Young may be a first-time Congressional candidate this cycle, but he’s making strong headway against veteran campaigner Rep. Baron Hill. Hill has never really had a consistent relationship with his 9^th District constituency. He faced some tough challenges from Rep. Mike Sodrel, and of course lost to Sodrel in 2004. For whatever reason, Sodrel connected with the district, but apparently not enough to hold onto it for Republicans in 2006, or regain it in 2008.

Money

Young soundly beat Hill in 2^nd quarter fundraising, coming up with $356,015 as opposed to Hill’s $281,105. As is to be expected, Hill still retains an overall financial advantage, but that is entirely due to the influence of PAC money which naturally flows to incumbents. Around 94% of Young’s money is from individual donors, whereas Hill has relied on PACs and special interest groups for close to 60% of his money.

When asked about the state of the money race, Young’s campaign manager, Ryan Burchfield, said, “At the end of the day Hill’s PAC money does not equate to votes.” Technically, that is true, though money is the key ingredient in every activity a campaign engages in to earn votes. Yet such a degree of reliance on special interest money is a liability in this political climate.

Endorsements

The NRCC announced at the beginning of July that Young qualified as a “Young Gun,” thereby reaching the top of a three tier program designed to recognize and assist promising first-time candidates. Young has also been endorsed by Mitt Romney and Mike Pence (Pence cut him a $5,000 check from his PAC) in yet another sign of just how serious national political figures are taking this race. In the meantime, Hill has had Vice President Joe Biden headline a fundraiser for him.  That doesn’t seem to be a smart idea given how unpopular this Administration is, particularly in traditionally conservative regions of the country.

The venerable Cook Political Report has the 9^th District rated as a “toss up,” meaning it could break either way. Keep an eye on this seat, because if Republicans manage to pick-up the number of seats they need to regain the majority, it is highly probable this will be one of them. Since Sodrel lost to Hill in 2006, I have viewed the 9th District as the easiest and likeliest Republican pick-up in Indiana; we’ll see if I’m proven right.