Archive for November, 2007

This thing is being dragged out more than the ending to The Return of the King.

View the article here.

Constitutional Amendment to Define Marriage?
Support: 49%
Oppose: 44%

A slight shift from past results, but mostly within the margin of error. Given that I have been told by multiple people “in the know” that the poll oversampled Democrats relative to Republicans, the result is hardly surprising.

Privatize the Hoosier Lottery?
Support: 66%
Oppose: 27%
Not Sure: 7%

This seriously surprised me. That hissing sound you are now hearing is the air going out of the Democrats’ constant arguments against the governor’s efforts to privatize elements of state government. They’ve spent almost three years with anti-privatization arguments as the centerpiece for their attacks on the Governor, and this result just blew all of that out of the water.

Make Churches Pay for Police & Fire Protection?
Support: 44%
Oppose: 49%

I can’t help but wonder about the results for this poll being exactly the opposite of the results for the marriage amendment. Makes you wonder about the hardening of cultural differences between Hoosier Republicans and Hoosier Democrats, particularly on religious and social issues.
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With the Indy Star reporting the obvious today, that the post below points out, it appears that the 7th is now wide open. Plenty of Democrats who reside in the 7th Congressional have been salivating for this moment for years. It could also be fair to state another obvious remark in that the Democrat primary is sure to be one of more vicious primaries we’ve seen in years. What it could come down to is the Carson Machine versus the Bayh Organization. Which is more scary? It hard to say at this point. But with names like Andre Carson, Carolene Mays, Greg Porter, Melina Kennedy, Mike Rodman, Woody Myers, Carl Drummer, David Orentlicher and I’m sure others to eventually be thrust into the rumor mill, infighting in the party is sure to happen if not already.

And what of the Republicans? Well, the names Larry Shouse and Wayne Harmon aren’t going to scare anybody. We already have a proven candidate in current State Rep. Jon Elrod who has announced, but what to make of the suddenly silent Eric Dickerson? Remember, just days before the recent election he re-emerged to endorse Greg Ballard for mayor. I really like Eric. I’ve had the pleasure of spending time with him since he ran in 2006, but the longer he waits, the less likely it is he’ll run.

Now I’m hearing from credible sources from outside the blogging community that former Indianapolis City-County Council candidate Bruce Henry is considering throwing his hat into the ring. Does he have what it takes to launch a credible primary challenge? With twenty plus years of service to his community as a police officer, a solid family life he could present himself as an attractive “outsider candidate” in the same way that made Greg Ballard so appealing to voters. But apparently Politico.com doesn’t think so:

Whoever takes the elder Carson’s place on the Democratic side of the ballot will likely face off against Republican Jon Elrod, a 30-year-old state representative whose candidacy is viewed favorably by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Granted, at this point no who has currently announced presents themselves as a serious challenger to Representative Elrod so it’s easy for The Politico to make such statements. Plus, if the NRCC is looking Jon’s way that could be a pretty good sign for him.

Either way, 2008 is going to be quite the year in the 7th Congressional district. With Congresswoman Carson’s deteriorating health, anything is possible. All the players involved in this race should prepare for the unexpected.

After a couple of days of unclear signals about her political intentions, Carson makes it official that she is NOT running for re-election.

This time, the results are about elements of Daniels plan to fix property taxes.

And, for the governor, it’s pretty good news.

The Indy Star has an article, and here are the results:

Would you be willing to live with a higher sales tax if it meant your property tax would go down?
Yes: 62%
No: 27%
Not sure: 11%

This doesn’t surprise me. The arguments now are not much different than those that were used in 2002, the last time that the state’s sales tax was increased (as a way to offset property taxes, no less). Same arguments, same circumstances. The only question is whether or not the additional stuff in the governor’s plan will make sure that this is the last sales-tax-hike-for-property-tax-drop.

What about your state income tax — would you be willing to live with a higher income tax rate if it meant your property tax would go down?
Yes: 45%
No: 42%
Not sure: 13%

Also not surprising, since people see far more directly the impact of the income tax on their wallets than the sales tax.

The governor is proposing to allow state residents to vote on major projects by schools and local government agencies that would require tax increases. In your opinion, is this an excellent, good, bad, or terrible idea?
Excellent: 12%
Good: 46%
Bad: 22%
Terrible: 12%
Not sure: 8%

Also not a surprising result.

All in all, much better results for the governor than the Sunday poll.

More pertinently, it gives an indication of the sort of shift his numbers could see once (or if) his plan is approved by the General Assembly.
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From the opinion page of the Indy Star:

I think we should get a “congressional refund” from Baron Hill and the other Democrats who were elected last fall. If they were a business, they would have been arrested for false advertisement. Since we can’t get our money back, it would only be fair if they resigned instead.

They all ran claiming they would clean up the overspending and stop earmarks. Since elected, they have done just the opposite. They have voted in lock-step with the big-spending Democratic leadership and have done nothing but waste money every time they send a bill to the Senate, as was done recently with the water conservation and children’s health insurance bills. Those bills increased spending by billions upon billions of dollars. They have also been obsessed with stopping our war effort by defunding the military, which none of them mentioned in their campaigns.

Jerry Sullivan
Indianapolis

But Mr. Sullivan, Baron’s former employer needs those earmarks for its clients.

They’re important, or something.

Surely you don’t mind your tax dollars going to the clients of the lobbying firm that Baron worked for (but didn’t, of course, lobby for).

Right?

Should Hillary win the Democrat nomination and defy logic by choosing Evan Bayh as her running mate, he’ll have to get used to being left off the captions from some of American’s most important papers.

Hat Tip to Mitch Harper of Fort Wayne Observed

We’re not ones to toot our own horns around here, but do you see that number there off on the right hand of the screen just above the feed links? That’s enough to make us break out the Snoopy Dance.

(Snoopy says this is an open thread)

I know that may sound odd coming from a conservative Republican website. I have written my share of posts showing a lack of support for Congresswoman Carson, but when a person is diagnosed with terminal lung cancer, even if that person is a political opponent, your heart goes out to that person.

I missed seeing the paper this morning, but I heard about Congresswoman Carson’s condition at church. I attend a fairly conservative church, but we pray for our elected officials no matter if we agree with them or not. We prayed for her and her family. Congresswoman Carson also claims to be a religious person, so we prayed that God would draw her closer to Him at this time and that she would find comfort in His strength.

Despite what you may think of Julia Carson, I ask that you do the same and lift her up in your prayers. You don’t have to agree with someone to pray for them. All politics aside, she is an elected official and is deserving of such respect.

Here is Julia Carson’s statement:

“In the late summer of 2007, Congress granted me a leave of absence because of my leg infection. My wonderful doctor cured the leg, and I went into rehabilitation, planning to be back in Washington shortly.

“Then the second shoe fell — heavily. My doctor discovered lung cancer. It had gone into remission years before, but it was back with a terminal vengeance.

“Therefore, I take this occasion to express my loving and literally eternal gratitude to my friends, including family, constituents and colleagues, who have given me so much love, support and trust. God bless our beloved country.”

Perception, meet reality.

And here we go.

Not as bad as some of those that talked to me seemed to think, but either “still bad” or “not good” depending on how you want to look at it.

From the Indy Star:

50% disapprove of Daniels’ work
Both Democrats angling for governor’s job have as much voter support as Daniels does

Half of Hoosiers likely to vote in next year’s election disapprove of Gov. Mitch Daniels’ performance, and the two Democrats vying for Daniels’ job have at least as much voter support as he does, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Rising property taxes, their personal finances, the lease of the Indiana Toll Road and the state’s switch to daylight saving time all contributed to Daniels’ disapproval rate, the poll of 600 Hoosiers found.

If the election were held today, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger could edge Daniels out, the poll found.

Of the 449 people surveyed who said they were likely to vote in the 2008 election, 44 percent said they would back Thompson if their choice was between Thompson and Daniels, while the governor received support from 43 percent of those surveyed.

In a match-up between Schellinger and Daniels, Schellinger was ahead 44 percent to 40 percent.

The margin of error on the ballot choices was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, while the margin of error on other poll questions, including Daniels’ approval rating, was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Daniels was elected in 2004, winning 53 percent of the vote over Democratic Gov. Joe Kernan. By March 2005, a poll taken for The Star showed 55 percent of voters approved of the job Daniels was doing.

But after a series of controversial issues — including pushing for daylight saving time and leasing the Toll Road — those numbers plummeted. A poll taken for The Star in March 2006 showed that 37 percent approved of the job Daniels was doing.

J. Ann Selzer, whose Iowa-based public opinion research firm Selzer & Co. conducted the new poll between Nov. 13-16, called Daniels’ current 40 percent approval rating “dismal,” reflecting the “sour” mood of the state.

Thirty-five percent of those polled said things in Indiana are headed in the right direction, while 57 percent think things have gotten off on the wrong track.

Many viewed their own circumstances pessimistically as well, with 27 percent saying they are better off financially now than they were four years ago, and 32 percent saying they are worse off.

With Daniels’ re-election hinging in part on convincing Hoosiers that he has turned Indiana around, those numbers signal that the governor has a big selling job ahead.

The governor declined to comment on the poll numbers, saying: “We’re concentrating on work, not polls.”

His campaign manager, Eric Holcomb, noted that it’s a long time until the November 2008 election. Between now and then, he said, voters will be reminded of the challenges Daniels has taken on as governor, including balancing the budget and pursuing jobs for the state.

“Clearly, the governor has done a lot fast,” Holcomb said.

But voters also are expected to be heavily influenced by whether Daniels and the General Assembly can fix a property tax system that many view as broken after having received bills this year that were double or even triple past years’ bills.

Man with a plan

Daniels has laid out a plan that hinges on a sales tax increase, which would allow the state to pick up school and child welfare costs that property taxpayers currently bear. He also has called for local spending controls and caps to limit homeowners’ bills to 1 percent of their homes’ assessed valuation.

That plan is why Shawn Peters, a 31-year-old Republican from Whiteland, said he expects to stick with Daniels, even though he disapproves of the job the governor has done so far.

“If you’d (asked me) before the property tax (situation) if I’d vote for the governor, I’d have said no,” Peters said.

Peters was among the 43 percent of those polled who think Daniels’ decision to move the state to daylight saving time has been bad for Indiana, while 44 percent believe it’s been good.

Still, he said, Daniels’ plan for addressing property taxes “is about the best I’ve heard so far” and has earned the governor his vote.

It remains to be seen, though, whether the legislature can agree on major property tax reforms. Even if Daniels and the legislature are successful, the long-term relief promised under the governor’s plan won’t show up until 2009 at the earliest.

Many voters likely will go to the polls in November 2008 with property taxes on their minds, as their fall bills come due.

‘Governor is vulnerable’

Democrats said the poll shows Hoosiers are signaling they’ve had enough of Daniels.

“It’s just bad news for Mitch Daniels,” said Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker. Still, he said, Daniels isn’t going to be easy to beat.

Thompson, however, said the poll “reflects that the governor is vulnerable, extremely vulnerable.”

She noted that she hasn’t spent any money on advertising, yet she is running in a dead heat with the governor.

Schellinger said he’s traveled to 74 of Indiana’s 92 counties, and the poll confirms what he is hearing: “People are not happy.”

And the breakdown of the results:

Daniels vs Schellinger
Daniels: 40%
Schellinger: 44%

Daniels vs Long Thompson
Daniels: 43%
Long Thompson: 44%

Notice that both of the Democrats top out at 44%. That has nothing to do with them personally, particularly given their pathetic name ID. That’s the “anybody but Mitch” factor coming into play.

Daniels Job Approval
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 50%

Given that the Governor has virtually no political sense when proposing and selling his policy initiatives (and given that he has tackled controversial and unpopular things like Daylight Savings Time and so forth), this number isn’t exactly surprising.

Right Track / Wrong Track for Indiana
Right: 35%
Wrong: 57%

Can you say property taxes? Sure, I knew you could.

Better Off / Worse Off than Four Years Ago
Better: 27%
Worse: 33%

I am surprised, given the anger over the property tax situation, that these numbers are still so relatively even.

Thoughts?
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Unless you’re still groggy from eating too much turkey or tuckered out from shopping ’till you dropped, you have probably seen the initial results of the poll commissioned by the Indianapolis Star and WTHR.

If you’re a political junkie, that is; if you’re not, you probably haven’t been paying much attention due to the holiday weekend.

The results made public thus far show a state deeply unhappy with President George W. Bush and even willing to vote for a generic-led Democratic ticket (against a nameless Republican), so long as Evan Bayh is on the ticket as a vice presidential pick.

No word about how that balance might change with Hillary Clinton topping the Democratic ticket; that might change things more than a bit.

You can see the article in the Indy Star about the poll here, and the full results of the Star-WTHR poll are available here.

These are just the national level results.

Barring something screwy with the internals of the poll or its methodology, the numbers are hard to spin; it shows a gloomy picture for Republicans and conservatives.

I have heard, however, that the poll oversamples among Democrats (polling more Democrats than Republicans, something that should not be the case in Indiana, even now) and it was done by the same firm whose pre-election poll showed Bart Peterson beating Greg Ballard days before the election (and they then revised that same poll to widen Peterson’s margin to be even greater).

Questions about methodology aside (to say nothing about serious considerations about the credibility of the pollster), the picture the poll paints continues to be unhappy because it wasn’t just conducted on national issues.

It asked about the gubernatorial race also, results that are to be published in the Star in their Sunday edition.

And from what Hoosierpundit sources say, even turkey-induced sleepiness and exhaustion from shopping won’t let those results go past anyone unnoticed.

The results are too big to be buried in a holiday news cycle.

They certainly won’t get past anyone with even a passing interest in politics, especially in the General Assembly and among those waiting in the wings to possibly run for governor.

Among either party.

The poll is to show Mitch Daniels’ campaign for reelection in dire straights, showing him losing handily in both the general election and (supposedly) against a generic Republican primary challenger.

I inquired to one source about the extent of how bad the poll shows things for Mitch Daniels.

“Better off or worse off than Ernie Fletcher?”

Ernie Fletcher, for those of you who don’t know, was the Republican governor of Kentucky that survived a primary challenge earlier this year only to go down to defeat in a 60 to 40 landslide disaster.

I expected to hear that Daniels was better off than Fletcher.

The answer I got was unexpected: “Worse.”

I was taken aback; Fletcher, after all, was indicted and spent his entire term in office plagued by a scandal.

Of course, another source told me that the results were “not bad, but not good either,” then pointing to the apparent imbalance between Republicans and Democrats in the polling sample.

Assuming the sources (I got multiple ones) on this are correct, this (as they say) changes everything.

Perception is reality in politics, as the old cliche goes, and Daniels has benefited for a long time from the fairly widespread perception that he is if not invulnerable then at least not very vulnerable.

This poll (credible or not) could dramatically change that perception.

Rumors of a looming primary challenge to Daniels could now manifest themselves rapidly into reality, and high-profile Democrats that have sat out the gubernatorial race thus far in favor of the placeholder / sacrificial lamb Jim Schellinger and the too-liberal Jill Long Thompson might soon find themselves revisiting that decision.

And what does Mitch do now? Having often ignored or gone against his own party’s base and taken them for granted, he now finds that they have turned on him.

And with his political fortunes in trouble, just how does that change the political calculus of The Hair and Democrats in the state legislature when it comes to his plan to reform property taxes?

As the oft-quoted Chinese proverb says, may you live in interesting times.

Things just got a whole heck of a lot more interesting.

7:35 Update: Source #4 tells me that the “Ernie Fletcher” characterization is completely wrong, and that the poll did not include a question about a primary challenge. Since each of those items came from separate sources, that makes the poll look less dire for Mitch Daniels than I have heard it originally described. This fourth source says the poll shows the governor losing to Jill Long Thompson, but only by a single point, and losing by four to Schellinger. The Star should be putting up their story tonight, so we’ll know more soon.
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