It’s About to Get Real Special Real Quick

Mourners are still be feeling the loss of Congresswoman Carson, but it would be foolish to think that the individual Marion County parties didn’t start preparing for a special election as soon as they got the news, if not before. Plenty will be written here about the political bloodshed that will occur within the Democrat party to replace Julia, but what about the Republicans?

First we need to understand the process and how it impacts potential candidates. In addition to Governor Daniels having to set a date for a special election, we have to understand that the candidate is chosen by a caucus. According to rule #82 of the Republican state committee rules:

Rule 82. When, for any reason, there is no Republican candidate for a circuit (located entirely in one county), county, township, or city office at a general, municipal, or special election, the vacancy shall be filled by the majority vote of the eligible precinct committeemen casting a vote for a candidate (as required under Indiana Code 3-13-1-11). Caucus rules, stating how a tie would be broken, must be adopted prior to the taking of the vote. The County Chairman, who shall preside at this meeting, must follow the adopted caucus rules.

As we all probably know, there are plenty of precinct committeemen positions open in Marion County, specifically in the 7th Congressional. Since both county chairman were preparing for a possible special election, they have been hastily filling the open spots.

How that pans out for the Democrats is where the real theater will take place. For the Republicans, State Representative Jon Elrod, who announced his candidacy in November, is the early favorite, and not just because the Marion County party has been actively fundraising on his behalf (If there is information to counter to this claim I’m open to hearing it). Elrod’s only challenger at this point is probation officer Wayne Harmon. My gut tells me that won’t be the only person facing Elrod before the caucus. So who does a special election open a door for?

(Read more below the fold to find out)

County Party officials will no doubt discourage as many people as possible from running to avoid a bitter caucus like the one that will plague the Democrats. But the circumstances could seem too sweet to pass up. The most likely option at this point could be 2006 nominee Eric Dickerson. Dickerson, who has been silent since endorsing Greg Ballard for the Mayor, could emerge as a strong possibility despite his almost complete absence from public life since running in 2006. He had the volunteer organization and from what I hear, people have been begging him to step back into the race. We shouldn’t discount others who may view this as a golden opportunity to pursue a once in a generation opportunity to claim a seat that’s been blue since 1974.

The other side of the coin we have to consider is what role endorsements could play in such a short time. The NRCC, no doubt has this congressional seat set in it’s sites. After coming off two special election victories last week in overwhelming GOP seats, and a close loss in an overwhelming Democrat seat in Massachusetts, they like their chances here considering how close her last two races were against poorly funded opponents. We also can’t discount the “Ballard Factor”. Normally, the endorsement of a newly elected mayor may not hold as much weight in his first one hundred days, but a truncated election and the fact that he’s still popular with his supporters, an endorsement from him could impact the decision of the precinct committeemen at the caucus.

Needless to say, it’s going to be interesting on both sides of the aisle. The difference between the two is that the fight amongst the Democrats will mostly likely spill out into the public, whereas the Republican, starting yesterday, will try to keep everything as close the vest as possible.