Guv’s Numbers on the Rise

Remember the poll done by the Star about a month back on Governor Daniels? It said his disapproval rating was at 50%. We should also remember that that poll was done by the same company that did the poll before the mayor’s race that had Greg Ballard within the margin of error (he was within two points), but the poll numbers were changed after it was released increasing Bart Peterson’s lead causing everybody to question it’s validity.

Well this poll was done by the Republican Governor’s Association. Here are some tidbits (with the rest to follow):

The Republican Governors Association (RGA) today released details of a poll done December 10th through 15th. The poll was a statewide survey of 1009 registered voters in Indiana and has a margin of error of + 3.0%. It is the largest poll done in the state in thirty years. It was conducted by Bellwether Research & Consulting (Christine Matthews) who has polled Indiana gubernatorial campaigns accurately for several election cycles.

Results from the RGA poll show a majority (51%) of the state’s voters approve of the job Governor Mitch Daniels is doing in office. In ballot match-ups, he leads both of his potential Democratic opponents by double-digits (+13 and +15).

An Indianapolis Star poll published in November suggested that Governor Daniels would be facing a tough election. Their poll sample was 449 and reported the party split at +2 Dem. RGA’s poll of 1009 showed quite the opposite with the party split at +12 Rep (36% R, 24% D) in line with other public polls and trends since 2000.

Governor Daniels enjoys a positive net favorable rating (48% versus 38%) and strong ballot positions against potential opponents as he heads into 2008. A majority of voters had not heard of any of the potential challengers. This overwhelming advantage combined with his record of solid accomplishments and leadership places Governor Daniels in an excellent position for re-election.

“Governor Daniels is in a much stronger position than some would lead you to believe,” said Nick Ayers, Executive Director of the RGA. “Indiana has the lowest unemployment rate in six years. Governor Daniels has successfully attracted major companies like Toyota and Honda to his state, and he balanced the state budget for the first time in years without raising taxes or taking funds away from education like past Democratic administrations have done before him. Governor Daniels has also proposed cutting property taxes by over 30% and capping residential assessments at 1%.”

Ayers continued, “We are encouraged by these early results and have confidence in Governor Daniels’ re-election because he will campaign through Election Day as if he was ten points down.”

Read the executive summary of the poll below the fold.

Executive Summary

A statewide survey of 1009 voters in Indiana conducted for the RGA

Field Dates: 12/10-15, 2007

Margin of Error + 3.0%

1. Gender [Quotas observed overall and by region]

48% Male

52% Female

2. To ensure our survey is representative, please tell me into which of the following categories your age falls?
13% 18-34
14% 35-44
26% 45-54
27% 55-64
21% 65+

3. I’d like to read you the names of a few people. Please tell me if you have heard of this person and, if so, whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of him or her.

Fav Unfav No Opin Never Heard of Ref.

Mitch Daniels 48% 38% 10% 3% 1%

Jill Long Thompson 17% 8% 24% 51% *

James Schellinger 6% 3% 16% 76% *

4. Do you approve or disapprove of how Mitch Daniels is handling his job as Governor?

19% Strongly approve Collapsed:

32% Somewhat approve 51% approve

18% Somewhat disapprove 41% disapprove

23% Strongly disapprove

8% Don’t Know (volunteered)

5. In politics today, do you usually consider yourself to be a Republican, a Democrat or an

Independent? (If independent) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican party or the

Democratic party?

36% Republican

24% Democrat W/ Leaners

24% Independent (no party preference) 43% Republican

7% Independent, lean Republican 31% Democrat

7% Independent, lean Democrat 24% Independent

2% Refused (vol.)

6. Looking ahead…if the 2008 election for governor were held today, would you vote for Mitch Daniels, Republican or for Jill Long Thompson, Democrat?

42% Mitch Daniels

29% Jill Long Thompson W/ Leaners

4% Unsure, lean Daniels 46% Mitch Daniels

19% Unsure – firm 33% Jill Long Thompson

4% Unsure, lean Thompson 19% Unsure – firm

2% Refused

7. Looking ahead …if the 2008 election for governor were held today would you vote for Mitch Daniels, Republican or for Jim Schellinger, Democrat?

42% Mitch Daniels

27% Jim Schellinger W/ Leaners

4% Unsure, lean Daniels 46% Mitch Daniels

21% Unsure – firm 31% Jim Schellinger

4% Unsure, lean Schellinger 21% Unsure – firm

2% Refused