February 1st, 2008 by Scott

New Poll Shows Hoosiers Looking Right

There has been a poll in the field recently from American Viewpoint for the House Republican Campaign Committee.

AV is a generally Republican pollster that did polling for George Bush’s reelection campaign, Dick Lugar, former senators Phil Gramm and Fred Thompson, Roy and Matt Blunt in Missouri, the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Campaign Committee, and (surprisingly) the Log Cabin Republicans.

The results from the poll of 800 Hoosiers, unsurprisingly, show a state that is looking rightward and is angry about taxes.

If the 2008 election for Indiana State House of Representatives were being held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or Democratic candidate?

37% Republican
32% Democrat
6% Other
23% Don’t Know
2% Refused

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mitch Daniels is handling his job as Governor?

56% TOTAL APPROVE
39% TOTAL DISAPPROVE

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in the State Legislature are handling their job?

46% TOTAL APPROVE
38% TOTAL DISAPPROVE

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in the State Legislature are handling their job?

37% TOTAL APPROVE
48% TOTAL DISAPPROVE

The mirror of the prior question; just how much does their gerrymandered map compensate for this among Democrats?

Which of the following issues will be personally most important to you in deciding your vote for the Indiana State House of Representatives?

20% Providing Property Tax Relief
15% Creating jobs and keeping the economy strong
9% Reducing wasteful government spending
7% Controlling illegal immigration
6% Increasing Funding for K through12 Education
6% Reforming health care
6% Holding the line on taxes
5% Insuring honesty and integrity in government
5% Improving the Quality of Education
5% Protecting traditional family values
3% Fighting crime and drugs
2% Daylight Saving Time
2% Increasing Funding for Post Secondary Education
1% Improving Indiana’s roads and highways
6% Other
2% Don’t Know
* Refused

This is interesting, but unusual in that they tend to usually allow an inclusive ranking system, rather than one where people have to pick a single option.

Now I am going to read you names of several people who are active in politics today and have you tell me if you are aware or not aware of each one. For those you know, I would like you to tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them…

Mitch Daniels

57% TOTAL FAVORABLE
37% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

Pat Bauer

20% TOTAL FAVORABLE
18% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

Jill Long Thompson

22% TOTAL FAVORABLE
11% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

Only one Hoosier in three even knows who Jill Long Thompson is; not an auspicious sign after so long campaigning.

Jim Schellinger

7% TOTAL FAVORABLE
4% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

Only one Hoosier in nine knows who Schellinger is; no wonder he fired his campaign team. If all of that money can’t at least buy you better name ID than this, then it can’t buy you anything.

If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were (ROTATE) Mike Huckabee (huck-a-bee), Republican and Hillary Clinton, Democrat for whom would you vote?

53% TOTAL HUCKABEE
35% TOTAL CLINTON

If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Mike Huckabeee (huck-a-bee) Republican and Barack (ba-rock) Obama, Democrat for whom would you vote?

49% TOTAL HUCKABEE
36% TOTAL OBAMA

Why no polling on how McCain or Romney might do?

If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Mitch Daniels, Republican and Jill Long Thompson, Democrat for whom would you vote?

53% TOTAL DANIELS
34% TOTAL LONG-THOMPSON

Interesting that they didn’t bother to poll on Schellinger (or publish it, if they did).

Would you support or oppose a change in state law that would require all tax increases approved by the General Assembly to pass with at least a 2/3 super majority vote?

76% TOTAL SUPPORT
15% TOTAL OPPOSE

They passed something like this in Colorado some years ago; it didn’t go over so well in the long run, at least for Republicans.

Would you support or oppose requiring a vote of the people by referendum on any school construction project that would be built with property tax dollars?

69% TOTAL SUPPORT
25% TOTAL OPPOSE

Referendums are made of win.

Would you favor or oppose allowing parents to enroll their child in any school they wish if their child is currently enrolled in a “failing” school as defined by the federal No Child Left Behind Act?

71% TOTAL FAVOR
22% TOTAL OPPOSE

I want to know who would tell a pollster that they want to keep children in failing schools.

Would you support or oppose a change in Indiana State law which would require that school districts begin their school year after Labor Day?

58% TOTAL SUPPORT
24% TOTAL OPPOSE

Why?

Would you favor or oppose awarding a merit pay bonus to teachers who voluntarily take a standard competency test in their core subject area every five years and publishing the list of those teachers so that parents will know which teachers are committed to continuous improvement?

74% TOTAL FAVOR
20% TOTAL OPPOSE

The teachers’ union is going to just *love* this.

As you know, the General Assembly has reconvened in Indianapolis and will consider a number of pieces of legislation over the next several months. I would now like to describe for you several of the topics the General Assembly might consider and have you tell me if you favor or oppose each one. The first is… (random order)

An amendment to the State Constitution that would define marriage as a union between one man and one woman.

72% TOTAL FAVOR
23% TOTAL OPPOSE

The continued use of the death penalty in Indiana.

72% TOTAL FAVOR
21% TOTAL OPPOSE

Withholding welfare dollars to parents of children that are truant from school.

68% TOTAL FAVOR
25% TOTAL OPPOSE

Increasing penalties for drivers convicted of a traffic violation while using a cell phone.

66% TOTAL FAVOR
29% TOTAL OPPOSE

This isn’t very conservative.

A statewide smoking ban in public places.

61% TOTAL FAVOR
37% TOTAL OPPOSE

Nor is this.

Eliminate the position of township assessor and replace it with a single elected assessor for each county…meaning that all 1008 elected township assessors in Indiana would be replaced with a single elected assessor for each county.

59% TOTAL FAVOR
29% TOTAL OPPOSE

Hah! So much for the more popular form of government being the more local one.

Governor Daniel’s has proposed a property tax relief plan which will reduce the property tax every homeowner pays by at least one-third by 2009 and caps property taxes at 1% of your home’s value in the future. To fund this property tax cut, the Governor is proposing a one-cent increase in the state sales tax. Now that you know a little bit more about the Governor’s plan, do you favor or oppose this property tax relief plan?

75% TOTAL FAVOR
19% TOTAL OPPOSE

Do you consider yourself to be pro life or pro choice on the abortion issue?

58% TOTAL PRO-LIFE
34% TOTAL PRO-CHOICE

The poll results were taken from here.

18 Responses to “New Poll Shows Hoosiers Looking Right”

  1. DrVanNostrand Says:
    February 1st, 2008 at 7:38 pm

    HRCC, who commissioned the poll, also posted the results on their website at http://www.housevictory08.com/american-viewpoint-poll-results

  2. Any information about how the poll was conducted? Party orientation? Was the sample representative? These things matter for obvious reasons.

  3. I have requested the crosstabs. We’ll see if they’ll give them and (if they do) what they say.

  4. Chris Douglas Says:
    February 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 am

    Note that only 5 percent of the population lists “protecting traditional family values” (which would probably be understood as code for the same sex marriage ban/life agenda, and whatever else one might imagine…) as a top priority… falling 10th in the list, behind health care, economy, etc. And the poll question does not touch upon the other things this amendment does, nor are most Hoosiers educated about the injustices same sex couples currently face.

    Polls of Indiana voters that ask, for instance, about inheritance rights or hospital visitation rights, “incidents of marriage” which do not exist for gay couples, support some form of recognition which this amendment would deny.

  5. Chris Douglas Says:
    February 2nd, 2008 at 11:19 am

    By the way, as one with no dog in the abortion fight, I can’t believe how many people have told me they are pro-life, only then to say that they would oppose a ban on abortion. Because “Pro-choice” has become such a vilified term in Republican politics, apparently many who cringe from abortion but support a woman’s right to choose for herself describe themselves as pro-life, even though theirs is a pro-choice position.

    Notice also how much care was taken to describe the issues for the voter surrounding the Governor’s tax plans before finally asking the question. The same is true on same sex marriage issues; a voter who has been informed about the issues takes a different stance.

    The House Republican Caucus is looking for numbers to affirm its positions, not engaging in an honest effort to ascertain where voters stand.

  6. Can you suggest better ways of describing the Governor’s tax plan to get an accurate read on whether or not people support it? It appears to me they did a very good job with that proposal.

    I would be curious about Chris’s wording of the question about same sex marriage–though I suspect it would be just as loaded as he accuses this poll of being.

  7. I don’t see any issue with the question regarding the Governor’s property tax plan. The result (75% in favor) is not far out of line with the support seen in other polling for the various individual components mentioned in the question (hike in sales taxes at 60%, capping property taxes at 70%, etc).

    One can always question the framing of questions in polls, but it’s worth bearing in mind that issues do tend to be framed politically anyway and that (I think everyone will admit) always also has a lot to do with support for or against them.

  8. Chris Douglas Says:
    February 2nd, 2008 at 4:38 pm

    Exactly, Scott & Joel. Taxes are a complicated topic, easy to demagogue in the manner of Eric Miller. Ask a “straight forward” question of the voter: “Do you support the elimination of property taxes?” You would get a vast majority in agreement, of course. Ask it of any tax question. But offer a thoughtful question and nuanced question, one that places the issue in context, and the voter will capable of a thoughtful and nuanced answer.

    I support the Governor’s plan, by the way.

    Try this question for voters, which though not neutral, is accurate:

    State law now bans same sex couples from marrying, and provides to same sex couples none of the privileges, immunities, rights or responsibilities enjoyed by married couples. Currently, for instance, same sex couples have no State-recognized rights to hospital visitation or inheritance of each other’s belongings, which rights are among those conveyed by the State’s marriage license to married couples. Citing the equal protection of the laws that Indiana’s Constitution guarantees to you and to every class of citizen, some same sex couples have sought court enforcement of those Constitutional guarantees which protect you as well. Some judges in other states, both Republican and Democratic appointees, have agreed with the couples that they do not today enjoy equal protection of the laws, and compelled by their oaths to defend the Constitution, have enforced those Constitutional guarantees by insisting that state legislatures provide protections to same sex couples equal to married couples. Because some people fear courts in Indiana will agree that same sex couples as citizens are entitled by the Constitution to these rights, they are seeking to amend the Constitution so that its guarantees cannot be said to apply to gay citizens.

    Regardless of your views of same sex marriage, do you favor amending the Constitution so that 1.) no court could ever enforce the Constitutional guarantee to equal protection of the laws in instances in which same sex couples find themselves without legal protection, and 2.) no law passed by the legislature conferring a legal incident of marriage on same sex couples can ever be recognized in court?

    Very wordy. But I find the reality is that for all but those who are most religiously or emotionally convicted against gays, education on the inequities of life for fellow gay citizens produces an impulse of decency and lessening of enthusiasm for this amendment and for what it is attempting to do.

    Polls by Indiana Equality demonstrate a majority of Hoosiers supporting some legal incidents of marriage for same sex couples, which incidents the second clause of this amendment would ban.

  9. Oh, Please… enough of the red herrings, they smell. It’s called a Living Will and a Conventional Will. There is nothing in the law against that. If the partner does not want to put the other one in charge that’s not some Eric Miller boggie man scheme, that is thier own personal judgement(or lack of).

  10. There is also a significant difference between framing a question and pushing it. Your wording of that question would accurately be characterized as “push polling”.

  11. Chris Douglas Says:
    February 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 am

    1.) Uncle, I don’t like your tone. You are both clueless and needlessly dismissive of the needs of your fellow citizens.

    The majority of Americans don’t have wills. And while Tom and I have the documents you describe, we are educated enough to know we need them, who to see to get them, and able to pay for it. (Our estate planning cost us about $800… a significant chunk of change for the average American… and that was just for the basics.) Even then, if I get hit by a train, Tom will have to pay a fairly hefty inheritance tax on half the house, because tax law recognizes no more relationship between us than between total strangers. And if I get rushed to the hospital and Tom rushes from a job site without stopping to find our powers of attorney, he has no more standing at the hospital than perfect stranger…. neither a right to information nor the ability to make decisions about my care…. until he finds those papers.

    If all that is required is a will and that is so easy in your opinion, then why bother to offer such protections to husband and wife? The laws provide protections for all those Americans who are married, guidelines that are just and fair, so that death or incapacity does not create further chaos or misery, which your tone leads me to believe you are content to visit upon your fellow human beings are not so protected. Most gay couples, like most Americans, are not likely to have thought through the peril they are in, and will find that their ignorance or lack of means pivots them into crisis, when proper laws might otherwise have assisted.

    And you are dismissive. Honestly, I struggle to find polite words to describe the contempt I feel for the cold hearts of people like you, for what I suspect is a willful ignorance about the good of your fellow human beings, and for what I believe is a prejudice that drives you to comment from a perspective of such callous disregard.

    It is well that you write from anonymity.

    2.) Joel, try this:

    “Same sex couples enjoy none of the legal protections currently provided to married couples. The Indiana Constitution reads: ‘The General Assembly shall not grant to any citizen, or class of citizens, privileges or immunities, which, upon the same terms, shall not equally belong to all citizens.’ Do you believe that the Constitution should be amended so that this guarantee does not apply to same sex couples and to ensure that they are not given access either to marriage or to any of the legal protections it confers?”

    That’s pretty accurate; it is why the amendment is necessary.

  12. Chris, your new statement is better but would still be pushing the result.

    Primarily you have one set of concerns which is separate from the concerns of another group. You are concerned (at least these are the points that you bring up) with property rights and certain relationship rights. Various social conservatives are concerned with the actual traditional institution and definition of marriage.

    You will note that the language of the amendment has nothing to do with the “legal protections” you talk about, but rather the definition of marriage. You are observing the implications of that definition.

    It seems to me that if there is a need for “constitutional” protections, that they can be done in a different way than an alteration of the definition of marriage.

  13. Chris Douglas Says:
    February 3rd, 2008 at 3:22 pm

    Joel, the reason the amendment is necessary is because the present bans conflict plainly with the Constitution’s call to afford equal protection and, for that matter religious freedom. Without that conflict, there would be no need for amendment, for there would be nothing in the Constitution to conflict with the present legislative bans.

    I AM curious, Joel. Just what does the equal protection mean to you? Do you see no benefit to yourself to ensuring that the equal protection of the laws for others is a concept fully enforced?

    Also, Joel, to say that “Marriage is between a man and a woman” is “the definition of marriage”, which is a formulation I so frequently hear, seems to be a language trick. I doubt my parents, for instance, would define marriage in that way. I suspect for them, they would define it more along the following lines: “Marriage is a civil and religious means by which two people in love and destined to be with each other affirm their ever-lasting acceptance, commitment, mutual respect, and support to each other in the presence of God, their church, their family, friends and community, and by which government affords them, and any children they have, mutual rights, protections, and obligations.”

    This form of definition seems to me to be much more accurate, revealing the depth of the institution and its impact.

    It seems to me that it is telling that the divorce rate among conservative Christians (especially Southern Baptists) is so high… higher than almost all other religious denominations, higher than atheists, higher indeed than same sex couples in Scandinavia. It seems to me that they have been seeking to define marriage in a way that is intended merely to exclude same sex couples, with no other unified basis across time or culture. And they seem least situated to claim any authority on the topic.

    It’s like the Columbia Club defining itself at one time as “a club for white people”, rather than, for instance, “a place where citizens engaged in business and politics can meet socially in an environment conducive to the formation of friendships and alliances.” The former is an intentionally exclusive “definition” which had almost nothing to do with the reality of the institution except for the purposes of excluding some citizens who, under the latter definition, would have as much a place in the club as any. In my opinion, it is merely prejudice against the excluded that informs such an exclusive definition, which definition is otherwise devoid of any apparent legitimacy.

  14. Chris, thanks for the challenge regarding equal protection. It has produced a lot of research on my part.

    Most importantly, the Supreme Court has already weighed in on this via Baker v Nelson. In 1971 where the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled that the Minnesota limit on marriage to opposite-sex unions “does not offend the First, Eighth, Ninth or Fourteenth Amendments to the United States Constitution.” This decision was appealed to the Supreme Court, which dismissed the case “for want of substantial federal question”. A dismissal is different from a denial of certiorari because it is a denial on the merits of the case and is therefore binding on lower courts. (Hicks v Miranda, 1975)

    This precedent has been upheld repeatedly, including the Indiana Court of Appeals in Morrison v. Sadler in 2005.

    The equal protection clause was written primarily with race in mind and has since been expanded to include gender. In other words, the Supreme Court has rejected your comparison between same sex unions and racist discrimination.

  15. Chris Douglas Says:
    February 4th, 2008 at 1:36 pm

    Joel, the Equal Language is comprehensive, not limited to race. Since 1971 the understanding of sexual orientation has advanced to a huge degree, so the the Supreme Court even now has been re-examining its own precedents. (I’m amused that your citing a Supreme Court ruling of the same justices who decided on Roe V. Wade…. do you now find their rulings valid?)

    I would urge you to think for yourself. I’m asking what the principal equal protection means to YOU as an American citizen. That shouldn’t require research unless you are struggling to find a way of answering that doesn’t have positive implications for how gay citizens should be treated.

    If the judge in Morrison v Sadler is right, then there is no reason to have the amendment, for equal protection is not a valid claim.

    But it IS a valid claim on the face of it, in my opinion, to anyone who does not bear a prejudice toward gays and who, as a judge, has the courage to apply the words as they appear in black and white in the Constitution.

  16. OK. I’ll think for myself. I read the amendment (14) in the light that it was written. It has to do with race and government laws. It has nothing to do with marriage. My interpretation, regardless of multiple court cases, is that there is no valid equal protection argument for defining marriage in any particular way (but multiple court cases agree with my interpretation). Even the Vermont case does not make this argument.

    The dead honest truth is that you consider homosexuals to need the same consideration as race. I have not seen any evidence to give this credence.

    I am done feeding the troll, though I do appreciate the research that your responses have prompted.

    I do wish that you would quit assuming that “prejudice” and “bigot” as the motivation of any who disagree with same-sex marriage. Quite frankly that is a (literally) prejudiced position.

    I have not even decided if a marriage amendment is needed, appropriate or good. I certainly do not see any equal protection argument and the more I read, the less convincing the argument becomes.

  17. Chris Douglas Says:
    February 4th, 2008 at 3:55 pm

    Joel, you’re not trying hard enough.

    1. Sec. 23 of the Indiana Constitution says: “The General Assembly shall not grant to any citizen, or class of citizens, privileges or immunities, which, upon the same terms, shall not equally belong to all citizens.” The authors surely understood they were stating a universal principle that would apply to any citizen and any class of citizen. It was only (perhaps) the topic of race that made the framers aware that it was possible for a majority to author laws discriminatory against minorities, and that this violated a fundamental principle of fairness.

    2. Read a court decision that does speak to this principle: http://news.findlaw.com/wp/docs/glrts/lewisharris102506opn.pdf

    If I’m not mistaken, the majority on this court was Republican appointed.

    3. If you do not support this amendment or the legislation it seeks to shelter from Constitutional challenge, then I apologize for implying that you do.

  18. Chris Douglas Says:
    February 4th, 2008 at 4:07 pm

    By the way, Joel, the dead honest truth (as you put it) is that I do believe gay citizens are as entitled to the equal protection of the laws as straights. There is no protection, privilege or immunity to which you are entitled, Joel, to which I am not also entitled. I pay taxes as you do, pledge allegiance as you do, and indeed as an officer swore my life for country, as I am guessing you have not.

    I believe I am every bit as good as my fellow citizens. The difference is that I am not supporting legislation that says a group of fellow citizen’s are not entitled to the same things I am.

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