The AG Race: For Whom the Bell Tolls…

It has been a busy weekend in the tumultuous realm of behind-the-scenes politicking in the Indiana Republican Party as various candidates jockey for position to fill the vacuum left by Steve Carter’s unexpected decision to not seek a third term as Indiana’s Attorney General.

Late last week and early this weekend, columns by Indy Star columnists Matt Tully and Russ Pulliam confirmed many of the things about which I was blogging much earlier in the week. On the downside, I have read one comment elsewhere that Greg Zoeller and Kyle Hupfer were present at the Bartholomew County Lincoln Day dinner, though two of my sources there reported not seeing them.

(Read more after the leap)

Pulliam has rattled off the four names that have surfaced in the attorney general’s race (Rokita, Zoeller, Wheeler, and Hupfer; two of which first surfaced here). He has also spoken of the 2012 gubernatorial dynamic at play in the AG race, and the social conservative movement against a candidacy by Republican Secretary of State Todd Rokita (more on the origins of that has been posted this weekend at Advance Indiana).

Tully has spoken to the reasoning, or more particularly the lack thereof, for Carter’s departure. Both private sector job opportunities and political maneuvering seem to be likely possible reasons for Carter’s unexpected departure. He, too, notes the same four names as potential candidates (handicapping Zoeller and Hupfer as favorites).

Much of the writing on this subject–from both Pulliam and Tully–has focused on the opinion of Mitch Daniels. As the incumbent Republican governor seeking reelection (and unchallenged in his party’s primary for that post), Mitch seems likely to have considerable say in who will be on the statewide ticket with him. Just as important–and it is easy to say moreso–is the consideration touched upon by Russ Pulliam in his first paragraph: the 2012 gubernatorial race.

Unseen in this dynamic (and her hand is never seen, and constantly underestimated for that reason) is the view of Becky Skillman on all of this. Should she have gubernatorial aspirations of her own (something about which she has never given a definitive answer), she would be keenly interested in the fortunes of a Rokita bid for attorney general.

The Secretary of State, alone of those listed, has potential gubernatorial ambitions for 2012. He alone would utilize the position as a further stepping stone to the big office on the main floor of the State House. Hupfer, Wheeler, and Zoeller will probably not be running for governor in 2012, but will instead be seeking second terms in the AG spot.

So where is Becky Skillman in all of this? The quiet lady from the Senate will probably be heard in all of this, even if only by the ears of Mitch Daniels himself. The Governor needs her; she is one of his few bridges to the social conservatives. He will not give a nod to someone (or give a nod at all) without knowing where she stands and taking that into account.

With such considerations outlined, we go now to the rumor mill, and to the handicapping list.

From what sources indicate, Todd Rokita’s fortunes are in decline. Last week, your humble correspondent noted that the Secretary of State was making the rounds at the State House to gauge support for a bid to gain the Republican AG nomination. I also reported that a Rokita candidacy would almost certainly garner social conservative opposition at the convention.

Indeed, Hoosierpundit sources indicate that Mr. Rokita will soon be withdrawing from the race entirely, as much as the SOS was ever in it. He will likely shortly indicate that he has decided that he has no interest in running.

Rokita’s potential candidacy was probably seen as a bridge too far for the party’s restive social conservative base. This is an interesting development, particularly in the respect that Rokita is not only not receiving support to run, but is also under significant pressure not to do so.

Draw from that what conclusions you will. Rokita’s departure, which several sources have characterized as imminent, would leave a vacuum among the remaining three candidates whose names are presently out there.

Greg Zoeller seems to be falling off of the radar. Geography remains an ever-present handicap; the state GOP will almost certainly not nominate two candidates from the 9th District, let alone two from Clark County. The opposition to Carter, and from that extending (unfairly or fairly) to Zoeller, among the Indy lawyer set is burning and even fierce (my email box is filled with criticisms of Carter and vows that Zoeller is unacceptable by mere association).

It is from such lawyers that the big bucks necessary to run a viable campaign will have to come, and–thanks to the suddenness of the Carter departure–come quickly. In this, Zoeller seems to have unfortunately inherited all of Steve Carter’s baggage. Several sources indicate that his prospects are lessening, yet he seems to be rated favorably by Tully and Pulliam.

The star of former DNR director Kyle Hupfer is supposedly on the rise, at least if Mike McDaniel’s assertions on Indiana Week in Review are to be believed. I have heard Hupfer denounced as being too close with the Indy law firm set. Mr. Hupfer is also young, has some baggage from his time at DNR (he has the dubious honor of having his own entire category at Taking Down Words), and has limited experience. At the same time, he is a movement conservative and a former Daniels appointee.

Floating around in all of this mix is still Tom Wheeler, the chairman of the election commission. He had previously sounded out Steve Carter about running, but was warned off when Carter indicated an earlier intention to seek a third term. This past week, I am told, he expressed no interest in running (primarily due to the AG post’s lackluster pay), yet his name continues to appear and to be mentioned. Hailing from Locke Reynolds, Wheeler would likely be in the favor of the Indy law firm set. He is a movement conservative and a Daniels appointee (or at least what amounts to one on the election commission).

Mr. Wheeler also has comparatively few enemies. Rokita takes fire from social conservatives, Zoeller from people upset at the performance of Carter’s office, and Hupfer from people angry at the Indy law firm set. Wheeler seems to garner no such opposition. Maybe this is because he is a affable potential compromise candidate, or maybe it is because he is not seen as a potential candidate at all.

Time will tell for all of them.

And in closing, let me just say (in response to queries by supporters of certain candidates), I have nothing against any of these gentlemen and think that they would all make fine candidates for attorney general.

I merely report what I hear, and welcome hearing from you. I am not difficult to reach if you want your view or positions heard, or if you wish to advocate for your preferred candidate.

You can email me here.

(This post also available at the Hoosierpundit)