Of Novak and Limbaugh

First, of Novak.

Mr. Novak has a piece in his latest column on Indiana and how Obama could possibly win the state’s Democratic primary the same way he won the Missouri primary: win a high concentration of voters in a handful of populous counties.

Here is the excerpt:

HOOSIER HOPES

While the Indiana primary May 6 is listed by Hillary Clinton’s strategists as a probable win in her effort to stay alive for the Democratic presidential nomination, Barack Obama could surprise her there by concentrating on a few counties — as he did in Missouri Feb. 5.

Obama benefits from large African-American voting blocs in Marion (Indianapolis) and Lake (Gary-East Chicago) counties, plus heavy student voting from Indiana University, Purdue and Notre Dame. Obama could win Indiana by carrying only five of 92 counties. In the barometer state of Missouri, Obama carried only five out of 114 counties, plus the city of St. Louis, in finishing first there.

A footnote: Obama broke into the Hoosier Democratic establishment Wednesday with an endorsement from the prestigious former Rep. Lee Hamilton. An ex-chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Hamilton won national acclaim as co-chairman of the bipartisan 9-11 commission.

It should come as no surprise that the Indiana Democratic establishment has for the most part endorsed Hillary Clinton. Evan Bayh holds quite a bit of sway in the party and his endorsement of a presidential candidate is almost binding on anyone who wishes to stay within the good graces of the party.

Speaking of favorite candidates, wouldn’t it be interesting to see Schellinger and Clinton lose the Indiana primary and Obama and Thompson win against the establishment? Of course, this is interesting only if you are not hopelessly in love with the Indiana Democratic party’s talking points.

(See the “Of Limbaugh” part below the fold)

Our liberal friend over at Blue Indiana has posted an interesting post noting that one poll shows Jim Schellinger “pulling even” with Jill Long Thompson. For the party/establishment favorite to be pulling even with a candidate of very tired ideas does not indicate a strong candidacy that will be able to successfully provide a strong challenge to the incumbent governor. However, just to cover my bases I’ll also note that it is never wise to write a candidate off too early.

Secondly, of Limbaugh.

The application of Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos strategy to Indiana has been duly noted and discussed in this Hoosier Access post. Although I fully support the objective of Operation Chaos, I do not like the idea of applying it to Indiana. Indiana is a quasi-open primary state. Although you don’t register as a voter of a particular party, you must declare your party when you go into the polling place on primary day. This declaration translates into a determination of which party’s ballot you receive.

Applied to Operation Chaos-Indiana, this means that Republican cross-over primary voters will be gaining the ability to vote in the Democratic presidential primary at the cost of not being able to vote for any Republican candidates running in other races (congress, state representative, state senate, etc). Grant it, there are some unchallenged Republican congressional candidates who could actually benefit from having Republicans vote for the most liberal Democratic congressional candidate (think Mike Sodrel benefiting from a Gretchen Clearwater nomination). However, in areas where there is a contested Republican primary, Republican voters would be better off sticking to their party’s primary and leaving the Operation Chaos work to other voters.

An example of this need for Republican primary voters to vote in the Republican primary is the Senate District 42 race. In this race, proven fiscal and social conservative Jean Leising is facing opposition for the Republican nomination to replace retiring Sen. Jackman (R). Leising, a former state Senator and congressional candidate, has her toughest opposition coming from Jeff Sponsel who is the current Shelbyville City Council President and has received some backing from the more socially liberal wing of the party.

Rush’s strategy is humorous and wonderful for states with truly open primaries, but in states like Indiana it should be used with great care and caution.