Interesting Numbers Come Out of Latest Howey-Gague Poll

I had a chance to attend today’s released press conference for the latest Howey-Gauge poll produced by Gauge Market Research and Brian Howey. The results of the poll were quite interesting considering they looked that Governor’s race (both the primary and general), the Democrat Presidential primary, the 7th CD Democrat primary and the 5th CD Republican primary. In short order, Burton trounces McGoff, Andre Carson trounces Myers (but wouldn’t if someone would go negative on Carson or if Orentlicher and Mays were in the contest), JLT has her way with “Diamond Jim” but the race between Hillary and Barack is too close to call.

5th CD Race: (Trial Heat numbers)

In a Republican Primary for Congress held today, who would you favor between (ROTATE ORDER) Clayton Alfred, Dan Burton, and John McGoff?

Clayton Alfred 1%
Dan Burton 57%
John McGoff 22%
Undecided 20%

That’s a big undecided group, but not enough for McGoff to have a prayer of overtaking Burton.

(See the 7th, the Governor’s race and the presidential race, plus cross tabs below the fold)

7th CD Race (Trial Heat numbers)

In a Democratic Primary for Congress held today, who would you favor between (ROTATE ORDER) Andre Carson, Caroline Mays, Woody Myers, and David Orentlicher?

Andre Carson 45%
Caroline Mays 4%
Woody Myers 28%
David Orentlicher 8%
Uncertain 16%

If Myers could claim all the undecided, then it’s a close race. But that’s a big and quite unlikely “if”. Brian Howey mentioned that someone other than Myers would have to go negative for Myers to have a chance against Carson.

Democrat Gubernatorial Race (Trial Heat Numbers)

(ASK DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS…) In a Democratic Primary for Governor held today, who would you favor between (ROTATE ORDER) Jill Long-Thompson and Jim Schellinger? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK…) Even though you are uncertain about your vote, which candidate would it be if you just had to say (ROTATE ORDER) Jill Long-Thompson or Jim Schellinger?

Vote Jill Long-Thompson 37%
Lean Jill Long-Thompson 8%
Undecided 28%
Lean Jim Schellinger 6%
Vote Jim Schellinger 21%

Total Jill Long-Thompson 45%
Total Jim Schellinger 27%

Democrat Presidential Primary (Trial Heat Numbers)

(ASK DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS…) In a Democratic Primary for President held today, who would you favor between (ROTATE ORDER) Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK…) Even though you are uncertain about your vote, which candidate would it be if you just had to say (ROTATE ORDER) Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?

Vote Hillary Clinton 42%
Lean Hillary Clinton 3%
Undecided 8%
Lean Barack Obama 4%
Vote Barack Obama 43%

Total Hillary Clinton 45%
Total Barack Obama 47%

Essentially, with the undecideds coming in at 8%, this race is too close to call.

The links will take you to the cross tabs.
5th Congressional District Race

7th Congressional District Race

Statewide Results (includes Presidential and Governor’s race)