More 5th CD Breakdown

I found the analysis below of the 5th CD race quite interesting:

The Crossover voting hurt Dan Burton more than John McGoff. Internal polling showed a 20-25 point victory on Election Day (also verified by polling done by a third part- Howey). Voter ID calls in the last 4 days showed undecideds going 60-40 for Burton. So what happened? Conservative primary voters who would have voted for Dan Burton instead participated in Operation Chaos. They won’t do that in 2010.

McGoff didn’t eat into Burton’s victories outside of Indy metro. Dan delivered 3 to 1 margins outside of Marion and Hamilton counties. This has always been Burton’s base (he lost Marion County in his last major challenge). He’s always performed well in the traditional Republican areas in the other 9 counties in the district. McGoff didn’t budge numbers there despite considerable effort (and some nasty mail in the last week).

(Read more after the leap)

Burton faced a hostile liberal media, bent on helping John McGoff defeat Dan. For example, in the year before the election, the Indianapolis Star printed 42 substantive articles, letters and editorials about Dan Burton. Of those forty, only 6 could be rated neutral to positive. The other 36 were primarily negative- and mostly harsh. The Indianapolis Star became unpaid McGoff attack dogs, tripling the effectiveness of McGoff’s funding. Again, with little or no results.

And finally,

The atmosphere in 2008 was the most advantageous for defeating Dan and is unlikely to get better for future challengers. Dan’s recent controversy regarding his vote record will be old news in 2010. Burton’s vote record ended up highest in the delegation. Incumbents had been soundly defeated in 2007, and the media was salivating for another upset. However, even a well-financed challenger was unable to do it. McGoff had every advantage a challenger could afford, but was unable to deliver.

John McGoff was Dan Burton’s most credible challenger in years.  But what it comes down to, was that he still couldn’t break the “I don’t like Dan” voter base that all of the Congressman’s opponents get.  I would have to agree that this year was the best shot at beating Dan Burton and it didn’t happen.  The question is now, does McGoff have any credibility left, after spending so much money and still losing, to run for office in the future?  I would say it looks questionable at best.

(H/T - Prosper Group Think)