Anatomy of a Thumpin’

Your humble correspondent has obtained a machine-by-machine breakdown of the delegate vote for attorney general at Monday’s GOP state convention (see the file of the breakdown here).

There were some forty-five electronic voting machines. Some counties (such as mine) shared machines with other counties. Other counties (such as Marion) had several machines all to themselves.

From this machine-by-machine breakdown, we can get a glimpse (however imperfect) of the anatomy of Greg Zoeller’s victory at the convention yesterday afternoon.

The totals themselves will tell you that it was, as George W. Bush once memorably put it, “a thumpin’.” Zoeller won sixty percent of the ballots cast, a margin of 354 votes.

That’s a smashing victory at any convention.

It’s a bigger victory than Barack Obama will see over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Party nomination battle, and the Democrats have more than two times as many delegates in that contest.

Sort of kills the “divided Indiana Republican Party” meme dead by comparison, doesn’t it?

More startling still than just the totals is the breakdown (seen via the machine totals) of the geography of that victory:

(So much more, including a cool graphic, after the leap)

This metric (devised by coloring counties on the basis of how their overall machine voted) is, again, imperfect by virtue of some of the machines including multiple counties, but it is highly telling nevertheless.

The dark red indicates a Zoeller victory margin in excess of 20% (66 counties) and the light red less than 20% (15 counties).

The dark green indicates a Costas victory margin in excess of 20% (3 counties) and the green less than 20% (6 counties).

The blue indicates a tie (2 counties; the same machine for both).

Zoeller carried every Congressional district save the 7th. He won in 81 counties; Costas carried only nine.

Given that 103 of the Marion County delegates were appointed by Tom John (and with all of the hullabaloo that surrounded the nature of those appointments), it is safe to say that Zoeller carried the elected delegates in Marion County by about 62% to 38%, a slightly better margin than he saw in the state at large.

Of the district chairs that endorsed Costas, only one (John Hammond) brought their district with him (and the 7th’s margin was provided with delegates appointed by Tom John).

Of the twenty-eight county chairs that had endorsed Costas, only four brought their counties with them (though Adams County’s Robert Noetzel certainly contributed to the tie on his county’s machine). This determination is imperfect, again, due to the lumping of counties together on a single machine, but it remains highly telling.

Only five chairs that stayed neutral saw their counties go for Costas; the remainder saw their counties go for Zoeller (with the exception of Delaware County).

Every district chair that endorsed Greg Zoeller saw their district in the “strong Zoeller” category. Every county chair (save one; Todd Hiday of Henry County) saw their county go strong for Zoeller.

Before the convention, there was speculation that the Governor and his people would–in the wake of the inevitable Costas victory–soon be moving against those district and county chairs that had endorsed Zoeller. I thought such rumors absurd and never blogged about them before the race.

Given these results, however, it’s interesting to note that the opposite could well be speculated upon (and probably with no more truth than the grain of salt of value given to the rumors to the contrary, but it’s amusing to see how it turned out to the opposite).

But what of these endorsements? What of the district chairs and the county chairs that went for Costas? What of the district chairs and county chairs that went for Zoeller?

Were the chairs for Costas weak and thus unable to bring their party base along with them?

Were the chairs of the Zoeller campaign strong and thus able to bring their base instead?

It is my view that the pro-Zoeller district and county chairs are just more in tune with the base of their local Republican Party and with their convention delegates than the chairs that endorsed Zoeller.

They listened to the people below them, rather than those above them.

What was wanted by the grassroots, versus what was wanted by the establishment.

That’s the storyline of the entire race, if you ask me.

(This post is also available at the Hoosierpundit)