Some Thoughts About the Indiana House
Now that the state convention is over, I think it about time for us to turn our attention to the Indiana House races. This can be an important year for Republicans on the state level. We are currently in the minority by a 49 to 51 margin. On the down-side, due to running for the Federal House seat, Jon Elrod is giving up IN-97. Of course, we failed to put a candidate up to retain this seat, so we are starting this effort needing two victories to tie and three to get the majority back.
Here are the contested races where the incumbent is NOT running for re-election, which should be considered the most vulnerable:
(Read more after the leap)
IN-10 Kenneth Kaminski (R) vs Charles Moseley (D) (38-62% in last election)
IN-19 Andrew Webster (R) vs Shelli VanDenDenburgh (D) (36-64% in last election)
IN-26 Randy Truitt (R) vs John Polles (D) (42-58% in last election)
IN-38 Jacque Clements (Voted by caucus to be on November ballot to replace Jim Buck who was selected in a separate caucus to replace Jeff Drozda) (R) vs Bob Snow (D) (100-0% in last election)
IN-62 Brook Tarr (R) vs Sandy Blanton (D) (38-62% in last election)
IN-63 Mark Messmer (R) vs John Burger (D) (38-62% in last election)
IN-86 Adam Nelson (R) vs Ed Delaney (D) (44-56% in last election)
IN-89 Chris Swatts (R) vs John Barnes (D) (52-48% in last election)
IN-94 Chad Miller (R) vs Cherrish Pryor (D) (0-100% in last election)
So there 9 contests without the incumbent running—2 currently held by Republicans and 7 by Democrats. I am guessing that the previously uncontested seats are safe—one Republican and one Democrat. IN-89 looks like one that is a possible loss for the Republicans. But there are six contests that should be somewhat competitive. I am personally more connected to the IN-86 seat as I live in that district.
Does anyone know of other seats that are potential pick ups for the Republicans this year? How about sharing some stories of what is at work in these various districts? And above all, how can we help get the House back for the Republicans?
June 6th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Isn’t David Crooks’ seat (HD 62?) considered a potential to likely GOP pickup?
HD95 is the former Mae Dickinson seat that is held by John Bartlett. This will be Bartlett’s first election and he is being challenged by Ray Shearer.
June 6th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
62 is the old Denbo seat.
63 is the former Crooks seat.
The GOP can take both. They have favorable terrain and great candidates in each.
June 6th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
24 points for both seats seem to be a large turn around. I guess I would attach, say, 10 point or so to a lack of incumbency. What has changed to get us the rest of the way?
June 6th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Joe Micon is giving his seat up this year, and Randy Truitt (R) from West Lafayette, Indiana has a better than good chance of taking that seat from the Democrats. He’s a solid conservative and very pro-life. I plan on getting involved with that campaign, and I’ll keep you all posted.
June 6th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Adam Nelson is a nice kid, and I’d think so even if he wasn’t running against Ed Delaney, whom I wouldn’t vote for on a bet. Adam came to the door one Saturday when he saw our Jon Elrod sign. Sadly, because I am in a mixed marriage with an agreement that we only put up signs for people we agree on, I couldn’t take one of Adam’s signs, but I did vote for him in the primary. (He needs to come around when my wife is here and talk to her if he wants his sign in the yard.
)
(Disclaimer: We have a Jon Elrod sign in the yard because we both know him personally.)
June 6th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Nathan, is there an issue that your wife has with Adam or is it just that she doesn’t know him?
June 6th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
“24 points for both seats seem to be a large turn around. I guess I would attach, say, 10 point or so to a lack of incumbency. What has changed to get us the rest of the way?”
Those are not Democrat districts. They actually lean Republican, and are two of the most Republican voting districts (in terms of other areas of the ballot) in Democrat control right now. The Crooks and Denbo seats were drawn for the particular and unique Democrats that held them, not for a Democrat in general.
That’s the great flaw (and great strength) in the Mahern map that the Democrats are playing on. It will elect certain people. It will not elect certain parties. When the people change, the clever creation that Ed Mahern made comes undone.
June 6th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Are there other districts that you see as having been drawn for the particular Democrats in them? While I think that the 86th district is winnable (though a tough race), I don’t think it really falls into this category.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
A lot of seats are drawn that way (though these are the two that readily spring to mind off of the top of my head). They had to be in order for Bauer to get to 52. Even in 2006, a majority of ballots cast in House legislative races were for Republicans.