Recent Polling Gives Elrod Big Advantage in HD 97

So Jon Elrod dropped out of his Congressional race. Big deal. In this years current political climate it was going to be practically impossible for Elrod to eek out victory in the 7th CD. That may sound harsh, but it’s the truth.

On the other hand, with Jon Elrod deciding to run for re-election for his House District seat, this improves the Republicans chances of winning back the Indiana House even in the most difficult of times. Sure the Democrats will try to peg Jon as a flip-flopper, as they’re already doing, but early polling numbers, conducted by American Viewpoint, show that Jon’s favorables are over 60% in HD 97 and he has 93% name ID, compared to his Democrat opponents 47% name ID and meager 16% favorables. What else is in his favor? He has higher favorables that either Mayor Greg Ballard or Governor Mitch Daniels and his re-elect numbers are over 50%.

So the Democrats can whine and complain all they want about Elrod jumping back into his HD race. They’re just mad that now they actually have to spend money on a race they thought they would have gifted to them. The question they now have to face is, do they spend money on a race that right now, they don’t win or do they try to help some of their embattled incumbents save face and hope to keep a few of the now open seats?

It must suck being Dan Parker right now.

(See the top lines below the fold)

AmericanViewpoint

American Viewpoint, Inc.

300 North Lee Street A Suite 400

Alexandria, Virginia

(703) 684-3325

(703) 684-9295 – FAX

1-800-684-4410

www.amview.com

Indiana House Republicans

House District #97

June 2008
N=300

Now I am going to read you names of several people who are active in politics today and have you tell me if you are aware or not aware of each one. For those you know, I would like you to tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them… ROTATE If favorable or unfavorable ask: Would that be very favorable or very unfavorable, or just somewhat favorable or somewhat unfavorable?

1. Jon Elrod

93% Aware

7% Not Aware

33% Very Favorable

28% Somewhat Favorable

11% Somewhat Unfavorable

5% Very Unfavorable

11% No Opinion

3% Don’t Know

1% Refused

61% TOTAL FAVORABLE

16% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

2. Mary Ann Sullivan

47% Aware

53% Not Aware

6% Very Favorable

10% Somewhat Favorable

2% Somewhat Unfavorable

2% Very Unfavorable

13% No Opinion

13% Don’t Know

1% Refused

16% TOTAL FAVORABLE

4% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

3. Andre Carson

97% Aware

3% Not Aware

18% Very Favorable

27% Somewhat Favorable

14% Somewhat Unfavorable

26% Very Unfavorable

8% No Opinion

3% Don’t Know

1% Refused

45% TOTAL FAVORABLE

40% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

4. Richard Lugar

94% Aware

6% Not Aware

43% Very Favorable

28% Somewhat Favorable

5% Somewhat Unfavorable

10% Very Unfavorable

5% No Opinion

1% Don’t Know

1% Refused

71% TOTAL FAVORABLE

15% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

5. Mitch Daniels

98% Aware

2% Not Aware

34% Very Favorable

26% Somewhat Favorable

9% Somewhat Unfavorable

22% Very Unfavorable

5% No Opinion

1% Don’t Know

1% Refused

60% TOTAL FAVORABLE

31% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

6. Greg Ballard

90% Aware

10% Not Aware

27% Very Favorable

28% Somewhat Favorable

9% Somewhat Unfavorable

6% Very Unfavorable

14% No Opinion

5% Don’t Know

1% Refused

55% TOTAL FAVORABLE

16% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE

7. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were ROTATE John McCain, Republican and Barack Obama, Democrat for whom would you vote? If McCain/Obama ASK: And would that be definitely McCain/Obama or probably McCain/Obama? If undecided ASK: Do you lean toward ROTATE John McCain or Barack Obama?

29% Definitely McCain

6% Probably McCain

3% Lean McCain

37% Definitely Obama

5% Probably Obama

2% Lean Obama

14% Undecided

38% TOTAL MCCAIN

45% TOTAL OBAMA

8. If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were ROTATE Mitch Daniels, Republican and Jill Long Thompson, Democrat for whom would you vote? If Daniels/Long-Thompson ASK: And would that be definitely Daniels/Long-Thompson or probably Daniels/Long-Thompson? If undecided ASK: Do you lean toward ROTATE Mitch Daniels or Jill Long-Thompson?

37% Definitely Daniels

10% Probably Daniels

1% Lean Daniels

32% Definitely Long-Thompson

8% Probably Long-Thompson

2% Lean Long-Thompson

8% Undecided

49% TOTAL DANIELS

42% TOTAL LONG-THOMPSON

9. If the election for State Representative were being held today and the candidates were ROTATE Jon Elrod, Republican and Mary Ann Sullivan, Democrat for whom would you vote? If Elrod/Sullivan ASK: And would that be definitely Elrod/Sullivan or probably Elrod/Sullivan? If undecided ASK: Do you lean toward ROTATE Jon Elrod or Mary Ann Sullivan?

40% Definitely Elrod

12% Probably Elrod

2% Lean Elrod

22% Definitely Sullivan

7% Probably Sullivan

3% Lean Sullivan

12% Undecided

55% TOTAL ELROD

32% TOTAL SULLIVAN

10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Elrod is handling his job as a Member of the State House? IF APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE, ASK: Would that be strongly approve/disapprove or just somewhat approve/disapprove?

27% Strongly approve

35% Somewhat approve

8% Somewhat disapprove

7% Strongly disapprove

22% Don’t know

1% Refused

62% TOTAL APPROVE

15% TOTAL DISAPPROVE

11. And do you feel that Jon Elrod has done his job as a Member of the State House well enough to deserve re-election, or do you feel it is time to give someone new a chance? IF RE-ELECT or NEW PERSON, ASK: Would that be Definitely re-elect/new person or Probably re-elect/new person?

32% Definitely re-elect

19% Probably re-elect

12% Probably new person

16% Definitely new person

19% Don’t know

2% Refused

51% TOTAL RE-ELECT

28% TOTAL NEW PERSON