Comments on: Recent Polling Gives Elrod Big Advantage in HD 97

By: Nathan Brindle

Nathan Brindle — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 19:44:09 +0000

If Jon wears out shoe leather again, I don’t see how he can lose. Facts or no facts.

By: Joel Harris

Joel Harris — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 21:17:20 +0000

facts, your “statistics” are where the statement, “there are three types of lies: lies, d*** lies, and statistics” come from. Sure Elrod’s unfavorables are higher than Sullivan’s. But to use your math, Elrod is 100% better known than Sullivan. With only 47% awareness, how could you have an unfavorable opinion of her?

Let’s keep on with your meaningless statistics: Elrod’s “Very favorable” are 550% higher than Sullivan’s. And Elrod’s “Somewhat Favorable” is 280% higher than Sullivan’s.

Unless she gets some money that is not usually present in House district races, going from 47% to Elrod’s 93% is going to be a challenge.

By: sueswan

sueswan — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 19:52:07 +0000

If Ballard and Brizzi were to go to bat for Elrod it might make a difference. Abduls blog on this was interesting, especially the comments where a democrat said he hoped Tom John remained chair for a long, long time. Our opponents like the guy running the show. Go figure. Ballard, Zoeller, Elrod all had this moron not support them but tell people to NOT donate to them and in Zoeller’s case tried to stack votes against him at convention. Abdul sticks up for his friend clearly which is admirable but hopeless for this one hit wonder, wait that hit was not even his. His next win will be first.

By: facts

facts — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 02:35:51 +0000

Josh,

Here’s some statistics from the poll above:

Jon Elrod’s “Very Unfavorable” are 250% higher than Mary Ann Sullivan.

Jon Elrod’s “Somewhat Unfavorable” are 550% higher than Mary Ann Sullivan.

80% of those responding about Mary Ann Sullivan as Fav/Unfav said they think of her in the Favorable catagory.

Remember that Distict 97 leans Democratic and I’m projecting at least a 3-5% win by Mary Ann Sullivan.
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By: scratchman

scratchman — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:58:40 +0000

elrod busted his ass to connect with the people in his district-that scores points big time. that, coupled with the fact that jon is a little more to the left than some of his counterparts (which, I believe, reflects his constituency-don’t forget, it IS typically a fairly democratic leaning district) I believe makes for an attractive candidate for the people of the 97th.

By: Joel Harris

Joel Harris — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:31:12 +0000

So then why Elrod?

By: scratchman

scratchman — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:20:10 +0000

I think some of that is the “change” factor. Obama wants to make some change (so did hitler incidentally) Mitch has already made changes–actions speak louder than words, and you can’t argue with progress…

By: Joel Harris

Joel Harris — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:08:03 +0000

Fascinating poll. So if this is right, this district would vote for: Obama, Mitch and Elrod. What an interesting combination.