Polling Memo: Indiana Governor’s Race

Commissioned by the Indiana State Republican Party and sent from the My Man Mitch campaign.

I wanted to share with you the results of a recent survey done for the State GOP. The findings mirror similar polls and show Governor Daniels with high approval ratings and in a strong position for re-election. –Cam

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To: Murray Clark, Indiana Republican State Committee

From: Christine Matthews, Bellwether Research & Consulting

Date: July 2, 2008

Subject: Latest Poll Results

These findings are from our June 22-29, 2008 statewide poll of 1,000 likely voters. The margin of error is + 3% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Hoosier voters are decidedly more optimistic about the state’s economy and general direction than they are the nation’s.

- By a 49%-31% margin, voters say Indiana is headed in the right direction.

- Just 19% of Hoosiers describe their view of Indiana’s economy as “pessimistic,” compared with 52% who view the national economy negatively.

- Most believe Indiana is doing as well as, or in fact, better than, other states in the Midwest.

By a strong 57%-34% margin, voters approve of the job Governor Mitch Daniels is doing.

- Independent voters give the Governor a 55% approval rating.
The Governor’s image rating tracks with his job approval: 55% view him favorably, while 33% view him unfavorably.

-By contrast, a majority of voters have not heard of Jill Long Thompson or have no opinion of her. Her image is 31% favorable – 17% unfavorable.

Governor Mitch Daniels leads opponent Jill Long Thompson by a 14-point margin (50%-36% with leans).

-It also appears that Ms. Thompson has yet to pull the Democratic coalition behind her following her razor-thin primary win. Just 60% of Democratic voters support Thompson in the race against Mitch Daniels.

-Female voters are as supportive of the Governor as male voters.

Fully 13% of likely general election voters say they voted in their first primary election in May, 2008. By an 82%-18% margin these new voters say they voted in the highly-contested Democratic primary. Governor Mitch Daniels fares very well with these newly engaged Democratic voters, leading Thompson by a 47%-40% margin among this group.

Bottom Line

Voters are pleased with Governor Daniels job performance and the direction the state is heading. Hoosier voters are making a clear distinction between the progress Indiana has seen in the past several years and the worries they may have about the nation’s economy or direction.

In a presidential year, Indiana historically trends Republican, and base Republicans are behind Mitch Daniels. Beyond the party base, however, Governor Daniels is appealing to independent voters and many of the newly energized voters who show a willingness to split their ticket.

Democratic voters have yet to fully coalesce around their nominee who squeaked out a primary victory over architect James Schellinger. She also has some work to do statewide, as a majority of voters have not heard of her or have no opinion about her, despite years as a Member of Congress in the 1990s and unsuccessful campaigns for U.S. Senate and Congress.

Governor Mitch Daniels’ first term track record has clearly put him in good standing as he seeks re-election.