Rothenberg on Montagano: “More Like an Overly Enthusiastic Undergraduate Running for Class President than a Member of Congress”

Exerpted from a much longer piece in the Rothenberg Political Report about Democrat long-shot races in heavily-Republican districts:

Everyone knows about the 40 to 50 GOP House seats at risk this cycle. But what about those lower-tier contests that some consultants and bloggers are pushing?

Does Mike Montagano (D) really have a chance in Indiana’s 3rd or Steve Sarvi (D) in Minnesota’s 2nd?

Talk of a 30-plus seat Democratic year is overblown. Even though many factors favor Democrats, the party would need to win solidly Republican districts to get that kind of gain, and that’s a daunting challenge. Partisanship still matters a great deal.

If [Michael] Skelly were running in a competitive district [TX 7], I’d think he’d have a good shot. But he isn’t. Texas’ 7th gave George W. Bush 64 percent in 2004 and regularly delivers big numbers for Republicans, making it a nightmare for any Democrat.

If you really think Skelly has much of a chance, ask yourself this: Do you really think that Republicans could beat Reps. Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.), Barney Frank (D-Mass.) or Grace Napolitano (D-Calif.) even in a bad political year for Democrats? Of course not. Yet their districts went for Kerry in 2004 by roughly as much as Culberson’s Texas district went for Bush four years ago.

Montagano and Sarvi? Sarvi has no money ($98,000 in the bank on June 30) and Montagano, 27, who has raised an impressive amount (probably with some family help), seems more like an overly enthusiastic undergraduate running for class president than a Member of Congress.

(Read more after the leap)

In general, however, be skeptical early on about low second- and third-tier Democratic challengers in solidly Republican districts. If they are in the game in early October, give them a longer look. But for now, don’t buy the hype.

Ouch.

I heard recently from someone that said that the 3rd District race of Souder and Montagano reminded them of the race between Hostettler and Ellsworth. I’m not sure that I buy that analogy; Stuart Rothenberg sure doesn’t.

Hostettler was never competitive in fundraising and effectively gave up early. Souder is certainly well in the game mentally, has a penchant for waging tough campaigns, has competitive fundraising, isn’t quirky / crazy, and his district is more institutionally and compositionally Republican at a local level than the 8th District.