A recent survey conducted by Survey USA has Governor Daniels crushing his opponent Jill Long Thompson if the election were held today (or Tuesday, when the poll was released) 52% to 38%. While the same poll gives Indiana to John McCain 50% to 44%. The survey was conducted for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati and as taken. SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Indiana adults 08/16/08 through 08/18/08. Of them, 779 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 645 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.
A few other numbers to look at just before the leap, 23% of Democrats were willing to cross over and vote for Governor Daniels, while 12% of Republicans we’re willing to cross over to vote for JLT. But the startling number to me was that only 4% of voters were undecided. The remaining percentage went to Libertarian/Independent candidates. That basically means that barring a catastrophe, Governor Daniels sails to victory.
What’s interesting about the presidential dynamics of the poll is that it shows that Senator McCain has increased his lead with those who attend church regularly from 16% to 28%, while those who don’t Obama has increased his lead to 23%. They note that this survey overlapped the Civil forum at Rick Warren’s Saddleback Church. 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Senator Obama, which is in line with the 12% who were crossing over for JLT and 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Senator McCain.
More numbers and your discussion in the comment section below the fold.
Click here to see the official page with the gubernatorial results.
Click here to see the official page with the presidential results.
Screen caps of the Gov. results
Screen caps of Pres. results
Interesting results.
This is a hard year for pollsters, when it comes to the presidential election.
Various polls have shown that in the presidential election, Obama has a significant lead among voters under 50, McCain has a significant lead among voters over 50.
Traditionally, senior citizens have the highest turnout on election day, and young adults have the lowest turnout.
However, this year, Obama’s supporters are more enthusiastic. On C-SPAN this morning, they were saying a pollster reported about 80% of the Democrats are satisfied with their candidate, and only 41% of Republicans were satisfied with theirs. Will this affect turnout levels? It might depend on the weather on election day.
Not just political pollsters, but all survey takers are having increasing difficulty getting representative samples for polling. They legally cannot make unsolicited calls to cell phones, so their samples skew older.
But what does this mean in state races? Will enthusiasm for Obama have “coat tails” for other Democrats, or will these independent voters pick and choose?
Sorry for having more questions than answers, and unanswerable questions at that; that’s how the cookie crumbles, I guess.
Don’t forget that we are still a significant distance from the election, too. Though the very low undecided number is remarkable.
I discount the concern over REACHING the young voter. A pollster worth his salt (and most of the large organizations including Survey USA are) know to make sure that you get the right mix of ages. The real challenge for the polling organization in this election is what weight do you give to a particular age demographic–will they make up 10% of the likely voters or 15%?
My feel is that as we get closer to the election we will find some of the youth enthusiasm for Obama wane as they figure out that he really is NOT a different kind of politician–just more slickly packaged than ones like McCain. The end result will not be switching to vote for McCain, but rather that they will not vote and will end up voting in traditional numbers. Only time will tell.
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