Gasoline Prices
I thought that I would weigh in a little on the price of a gallon of gas in these turbulent times. The news has touched on this a little, but doesn’t give a great picture.
Unless you live under a rock, you have noticed a 20-30 cent per gallon rise in gas prices at the pump over the last couple of days. You have probably also noticed that the price of a barrel of oil has decreased, briefly dropping under $100/bbl today. The natural question is, “What the heck?”
The explanation is below the fold:
The answer that the news seems to be giving is “Hurricane Ike”. That is a correct answer, but only part of the picture. What has happened is that when Hurricane Gustav landed last week, many of the gulf refineries had to shut down. These refineries pipeline finished product north into our region.
What is not commonly understood is that refineries do not work like a light switch. Some refineries did not come back up quickly. I was told yesterday that one major refinery was still not on line. (As a related aside, apparently there was also an outage at the Whiting Refinery this week).
The result is that as Ike is approaching Texas, refined oil products (i.e. gasoline and diesel) are in relatively short supply in the Midwest and there are threats of more outages this weekend.
Thinking very briefly about the laws of supply and demand lead you to the quick conclusion that prices had to go up to protect the limited supplies of gasoline.
Cross posted at Circle City Pundit








September 12th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Joel, good info and something I was wondering about but hadn’t taken the time to dig into …
And with less oil be refined, the demand for that is temporarily reduced which would also let prices float downward a bit I would think?
So, refined supply is constricted, unrefined demand is reduced. Higher gas prices, lower oil prices.
September 12th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Which leads to the whole Chicken-Egg quandary. We do need more oil, but without expanding or new refineries there is a constriction on the pipeline.
Of course the Angry Left doesn’t want oil, they don’t want refineries, they don’t want wind because it (choose your excuse) a) causes seizures, or at least nausea and vomiting b) Upsets their view of Cape Cod, they don’t want nuclear because they’ve watched The Simpsons and fear Montgomery Burns, they don’t want hydro because it could drown some snail darter or something to that effect, and they don’t want ethanol because they don’t want to get stuck behind Farmer John’s tractor and be late to Brown County for a tree hugging festival.
September 12th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Good thoughts, Joel.
September 12th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Michael, the reality is that we probably have close to adequate refining capability, but the location stinks. So much of the capacity is around the Gulf which means that something like a hurricane shuts down a huge percentage of our refining capacity. I would like to see some geographical diversity (of course meaning that we would still have to build refining capability somewhere).
The Dakotas have been mentioned.
September 14th, 2008 at 12:07 am
There hasn’t been a new refinery built in the US since 1976. We barely have adequate capacity.
Shipping crude oil to the Dakotas, and then shipping the products back to the places where they will be used would be a bad idea. The refineries need to be near the places where the products will be used (because we don’t know where tomorrow’s crude will be coming from, and because refined petroleum products are more hazardous to ship.)
The construction trades are depressed right now because of the mortgage situation. The nation’s infrastructure, whether it is roads and bridges, water, sewer, electricity, refining, whatever, all is in severe need of upgrading.
Now would be a good time for a major public works project. It’d be cheaper to do it now, because we’d save a bundle on unemployment.
September 14th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Ummm the reason no new refinery is built for over 30 years is because the environuts fight it every turn. She Who Is Never Mentioned By Name Here By Me wrote many times on her blog of her opposition to the expansion of BP in Whiting.
I read a link off Drudge from the UK about a group of environuts that vandalized a power generating station. The court ruled the action was justified in order to protect the environment.
I hope that sort of judicial insanity doesn’t wash up on the shores of the USA. Can you imagine the environmentalists teaming up with Al-Queda to bomb oil refineries or power plants?
September 14th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Woe! Backup here a bit. First, while we have not built a new refinery in 30 years, we have more or less kept pace with CAPACITY. We have expanded refineries. The problem is that it makes us more vulnerable to outages (what we are going through right now). Strangely, we have not really increased our gasoline usage in 25 years. The increase in mileage has kept up with the increased miles being driven. The same cannot be said, though, for diesel fuel.
Second, the reason that the Dakotas are being mentioned is that there is a HUGE set of oil reserves being worked on up there (the Bakken Formation) so it would be a matter of putting refining capacity where the oil is. You either pipeline the oil or the products.
Third, while we are at a multi-year high on unemployment, 6.1% isn’t exactly HUGE unemployment that requires idiotic “public works projects”. I would hope that we would learn eventually that large government projects usually result in poor quality, really expensive projects that never end.
September 15th, 2008 at 9:44 am
we have more or less kept pace with CAPACITY.
Between 1985 and 2008, capacity grew from 19,412.16 to 19,512.85 thousand bbl/day. That’s 0.5% increase in capacity.
Load grew from 14,365 to 17,464 thousand bbl/day. That’s 22% growth. We’re not keeping up.
Strangely, we have not really increased our gasoline usage in 25 years.
What’s even more strange is that you think growing from 6,539 to 9,286 thousand bbl/day - 42% growth in gasoline usage - is not really an increase.
a HUGE set of oil reserves being worked on up there (the Bakken Formation)
They’re playing around, but they haven’t figured out how to produce much yet.
while we are at a multi-year high on unemployment, 6.1% isn’t exactly HUGE unemployment that requires idiotic “public works projects”.
Last year, when we averaged 3.7% unemployment, construction unemployment was 7.6%. Both overall and construction unemployment is higher now.
And I’m not advocating idiotic public works projects. Most of our infrastructure in this country dates from the 1930s. It needs to be ungraded - and like the guy in the Fram oil commercial used to say, “Pay me now or pay me later.”
Right after WWII, we replaced the infrastructure for Japan and Germany - and twenty years later, they were eating our lunch. We need to be working on OUR infrastructure, not Iraq’s.
September 15th, 2008 at 10:33 am
I base my information on US Government numbers found here:
tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_refmg_d_nus_VTR_mgalpd_a.htm
This indicates that total gasoline deliveries in 1983 were 51 million gallons per day. In 2007 that number was 57.6 million gallons per day–ironically roughly equivalent to the rate in 1984. We are hurting, though, in diesel capacity. What I intended to point out with this is that we don’t necessarily have to build refineries to keep up with capacity. It is a weakness in the “no new refineries” argument.
They’re playing around, but they haven’t figured out how to produce much yet.
Well, it happens that it takes just a few years to build a new refinery. Are you suggesting that we will not figure out what needs to be done there in the near future? That’s crazy. I am talking about FUTURE PLANNING. This is a strategic, long term proposal. I expect that we will figure out what to do with the particular type of crude that will be coming from there.
The last time I could find a sub 4% unemployment rate was 1969. I have no idea what you are talking about having an average 3.7% unemployment last year. That is just plainly wrong. I see 4.6%. By the same measure, the average is 5.3% this year.
http://www.miseryindex.us/urbymonth.asp
What you are proposing regarding your public works projects is a MASSIVE increase in Federal spending and bureaucracy. I know you are saying the roads and bridges are crumbling around us. But I think experience shows us that large Federal spending (even on “good” things like infrastructure) has several consequences: 1) massive waste, 2) poor quality results, 3) spending that NEVER goes down, 4) massive budget deficits. (Anyone have some more for this list?)
I know, we already have that deficit. I know, we are wasting x billion a month in Iraq. But you don’t fix it by spending bunches of money in order to reduce unemployment.
September 15th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
There was a day when “public works” projects did some good and many of those are still standing to this day - Hoover Dam and the TVA’s system of dams and hydro plants. You could call Golden Gate bridge a “public works” project even though it was private property owners in San Francisco and Marin County that invested to build the bridge. Those were done back in the 1920’s and 1930’s.
Modern public works projects - The Massachusetts Big Dig is a prime example. Rife with cost overruns, political corruption, and subpar construction.
September 15th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
The TVA also produced one of the most unsafe nuclear (Nu-cu-lar, for Josh) power plants in the nation, as well.
September 15th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
This indicates that total gasoline deliveries in 1983 were 51 million gallons per day.
That’s just the RETAIL deliveries. There are a lot of wholesale purchasers, such as farmers, fleet operators, fishing boats, airplanes, etc. The page you should be looking at is
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mgfupus2a.htm
I expect that we will figure out what to do with the particular type of crude that will be coming from there.
So when is it going to be coming? The Bakken formation was discovered in 1951, and in a half century of playing around, they still haven’t figured out how to get it out of the ground. Take a look at the North Dakota state website. It shows how many new wells are being drilled each month - and how many are being abandoned. There’s lots of interest, but not much success.
I have no idea what you are talking about having an average 3.7% unemployment last year. That is just plainly wrong. I see 4.6%. By the same measure, the average is 5.3% this year.
The average unemployment rate for men over 16 last year was 4.7%, not 3.7%; my apologies for the typo. The current unemployment rate is 6.1%. The average for the construction industry last year was 7.6%, though, and it’s continuing to rise. In the construction industry, 388,000 have been laid off since 2006.
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/lf/aat25.txt
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
But you don’t fix it by spending bunches of money in order to reduce unemployment.
I never said it should be done to reduce unemployment. I said it’s cheaper to do it now, because you save the cost of paying unemployment compensation.
When a bridge collapses, you not only lose the bridge and the people crossing it at the moment, but you lose the ability of fire departments to put out fires on the opposite side, you lose industrial output because skilled workers can’t get to their jobs and they are replaced with incompetent workers, and because factories can’t get material in and finished products out.
And when a dam collapses, families die, houses are destroyed, and mortgages never get paid.
You see what’s happening to the markets right now because of mortgages going bad. Silver State Bank, which had John McCain’s son as a director, failed a week ago. Fannie and Freddie failed a day or two later. Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch failed this weekend. All we need is for a few dams to fail to put the icing on the cake.
And it’s not a small problem. More than half the bridges in this country are problematic. More than half the dams in this country are past the lifetime they were designed to last.
Saying “it costs too much” doesn’t work; ignoring the problems until we get disasters simply makes it cost even more.
September 15th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Thanks for that reference total gasoline reference. I had not found that one. I must admit that the DOE site is not the easiest site to find information on.
My point was not and is not that the Bakken Formation is the answer (though there is a lot of investment in the relevant technologies going on right now). My point (going back a ways) is that we need geographic diversity of refinery locations. I offer the Dakotas as a potential location because others are talking about using it. In fact, it is the closest to reality:
gas2.org/2008/06/04/new-south-dakota-oil-refinery-one-step-closer-to-reality/
You seem to be arguing that the mortgage collapse is connected to weak infrastructure? Or is that just a fear?
I do not argue that it costs too much as a reason why it shouldn’t be done, though it would.
I would argue that it is not the Federal government’s job to build dams and bridges. I would argue that we are seeing right now why government intervention into the market is what has caused the problem rather than fixing it. I would argue that over regulation and over taxation of its citizens has removed capital from the cities and states so that the ones that have constitutional authority to build bridges and dams do not have the resources to do so. Government intervention has given rise to the huge conglomerates that we “can’t afford” to let fail.
But this is a far cry from the discussion of gas prices. But always remember that the other implication of huge spending is devaluing of the dollar and that causes oil and gas to cost more as well.
September 16th, 2008 at 2:25 am
You seem to be arguing that the mortgage collapse is connected to weak infrastructure? Or is that just a fear?
No, not at all. On the other hand, we have a lot of financial institutions in deep trouble because of the credit crisis. Everybody said Morgan Stanley would be the end of it. Then everybody said Fannie & Freddie would be the end of it. Then we get Morgan Stanley. Nobody’s saying this will be the end. That’s why the stock market collapsed; people are afraid.
It’s not just mortgage money at this point. If a bank is severely crippled because of mortgage loan losses, they no longer have the capital to invest in other kinds of loans, industry no longer can buy materials, so they lay off workers, which clobbers retailers. Everything goes south.
There were some pretty big losses with Ike. Nobody knows yet how big they are, but the fact that the feds have established a “no fly zone” suggests that they don’t want news organizations to let people know how bad it is. And homeowner’s insurance covers storm losses.
But when a dam breaks, that’s strictly flooding, and your insurance does NOT cover that, whether you have form 2 or form 3 insurance. The only thing that covers that is flood insurance - which nobody has.
I would argue that it is not the Federal government’s job to build dams and bridges.
Yes? When you take the interstate to Florida, you’re supposed to ford the Ohio river?
Hoover Dam is owned by the Federal government. That would make, I don’t know, maybe Starbucks responsible for it?
I would argue that over regulation and over taxation of its citizens has removed capital from the cities and states so that the ones that have constitutional authority to build bridges and dams do not have the resources to do so. Government intervention has given rise to the huge conglomerates that we “can’t afford” to let fail.
Tax levels are pretty much meaningless. Taxes always equal spending. It’s just that there are two types of tax - the explicit tax, which government admits to imposing, and the implicit tax, which is a debasement of the currency.
Jack Kemp was promoting the idea of the Laffer Curve, which has some limited merit, but the tax cuts that Bush favored (and which John McCain was against before he was for) didn’t increase tax revenues. However, Kemp managed to convince the GOP that it wasn’t necessary to balance the budget, as long as you controlled spending. Once they abandoned the discipline imposed by the desire to balance the budget, the GOP has been spending money like a drunken sailor, causing the dollar to lose 37% of its value since 2001.
And now, we’re running a sailor with a history of hard drinking for President.
Most of the new regulations that are impairing productivity in this country are in the name of “homeland security,” and yet they aren’t accomplishing a damnable thing. China sends us toys painted with poison paint, and gluten, used in foods as well as dog food, which contains poison melamine. We’re turning back more than 90% of all peppers at the border, and yet the 10% we’re allowing in are killing people.
Security is like a house with 100 doors and windows. If you have armed guards at 99 of those 100 doors and windows, it doesn’t help a bit, if miscreants can easily walk through the 100th.
We have been pretty arrogant in our international relations, not just in the last decade, but for well over a century. Think about the Dida Beard scandal. Think about United Fruit Company’s repeated scandals. Today, companies like Texaco, ARCO, and Pepsi are engaged in slavery - admittedly at arm’s length - in Burma.
We can’t afford to pull that kind of crap any longer, because it’s getting easier and easier for victims to strike back - and if you have nothing to lose, what’s to stop you? We need to practice the Good Neighbor Policy that Herbert Hoover announced in 1928.
If the Grand Dutchy of Fenwick finds us a profitable trade partner, and we treat them with respect, then Grand Fenwickians are unlikely to attack us - you don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
When two people swap, each getting something they prefer in exchange for something they value less, they both profit. The Good Neighbor Policy isn’t just touchy-feely nice, it’s highly profitable. The GOP always promoted the idea of “Peace Through Strength” and it’s only been in the last few years that it’s promoted a “Piddle Away Our Military Strength and Make A Lot of Enemies” policy. We need a good Republican president - but we haven’t had one in this century, and we haven’t got one running this year.
September 17th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Harl you are all over the place. This post is about gas prices not the entirety of national politics. Let’s limit the discussion to gas prices. My point from the beginning was that we have had low inventory levels causing increase of prices of gas at the pump. Those prices are slowly coming back down, which is appropriate as gas sources come back online.
I argued that we need geographic diversity of where our refining capabilities are. The implication is that we need additional refining resources. I suggest the Dakotas because, among other reasons, there is crude there and they seem to have the political will to actually build a refinery. I don’t see refining capacity as near the issue as others, but I it is not worth arguing about.
The rest is really off-topic.