Hill Leads Sodrel in Recent Poll, Schansberg is the Margin of Error
An anonymous source has leaked to me results of a poll that was taken in the 9th Congressional district that looked at the Presidential race, the Gubernatorial race and the 9th CD race. I was only leaked the Executive summary, so I do not have the cross tabs, but below are the results that have been passed on to me. The poll was taken by Wilson Research Strategies and commissioned by the Mike Sodrel Campaign. It took place on September 8-9, 2008, the Monday and Tuesday after the Republican Convention in Minnesota and polled 500 likely voters.
Here is are the pertinent numbers:
The district is decidedly more Republican this cycle than last.
- The number of voters identifying themselves as Republican is now surpassing the total of those saying they are Democratic for the first time since May 2005.
- Likewise, when voters are asked who they would vote for in the upcoming November election for Congress – the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, 46% say that they prefer the Republican candidate and only 39% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate. The Republican candidate never led on the generic ballot in all of 2006. In fact, support for the Democratic candidate is at the lowest point since 2005.
- Both John McCain and Mitch Daniels are leading their Democratic opponents by significant margins, both scoring double-digit leads.
McCain 56%
Obama 36%
Daniels 55%
Thompson 35%
The race for Congress is a dead-heat.
- The race is inside the margin of error (±4.38) – closer than it was at the same time last election cycle:
Sodrel 41%
Hill 44%
Schansberg 4%
- Schansberg pulls nearly even support from Republicans (26%) and Democrats (21%), giving neither Sodrel nor Hill an advantage by having Schansberg in the race.
- Considering the Republican advantage in identification (+4) and on the generic ballot (+7), Hill is looking at an uphill battle to be re-elected in this district. McCain (+20) and Daniels (+20) have strong support here, attracting a significant number of Independent and less frequent voters to the polls for Republicans.
Read the rest of the executive summary below the fold.
Executive Summary of Sodrel Commissioned Poll from Sept. 8-9, 2008
September 22nd, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Who conducted the poll?
What i status of other congress race in particular Donnelly one?
September 22nd, 2008 at 9:54 pm
The poll was taken by Wilson Research Strategies and commissioned by the Mike Sodrel Campaign. It took place on September 8-9, 2008, the Monday and Tuesday after the Republican Convention in Minnesota and polled 500 likely voters.
September 22nd, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Interesting results.
It’s difficult to believe that the GOP is that strong these days, but who knows.
It’s also interesting that the undecideds in the 9th are 11%. Good news for me, since people are so familiar with the other two…
And this provides more evidence that my impact on the outcome this time is probably marginal. This lines up with the 2006 and 2008 Survey USA data– and intuition as well: in 2006, I would have pulled more typical Hill voters when Iraq was a bigger issue.