Second Debate Thoughts

If you looked at debate outcomes based purely upon points, McCain carried the evening. He landed many hits on Obama. Indeed, it was probably the best McCain has been on economic issues in the entire campaign.

However, the debate does not in and of itself change anything. McCain remains behind though two recent polls show a narrowing of the race. My own theory on this is that Obama has undergone a sort of second convention bounce due to the market crisis, but one that has been eroded with the passage of time, the reassertion of more partisan and ideological viewpoints, and the airing of information about Obama’s relationship to some of those responsible for this situation. Palin’s debate performance probably also helped. Bounces are transitory; I suspect that Obama’s recent lead will pass in a similar fashion. That’s not to say that McCain will suddenly return to the lead, only that the race will not appear as decided as it now looks in polling.

With regard to the debate itself, Obama made several notable gaffes. He said that computers were invented by the U.S. government.

Obama also said that we should have intervened against Germany to stop the Holocaust. we were at war with Nazi Germany as it was happening. It’s hard to intervene more than that.

At a fundamental level, however, such mistakes don’t matter. McCain owns the town hall format, and he owned this debate. That was to be expected. He emerged from it the winner. But that expectation doesn’t give McCain the sort of surge he needs to deflate Obama and establish himself in the lead. It does, however, probably end the media narrative that the race is over (as if narrowing polling doesn’t indicate that already).