Howey/Gauge Has Daniels Up By An Astonishing 31 Percent

If the latest Howey/Gauge Market Research poll says anything about the Governor’s race, it’s that it’s essentially over and Jill Long Thompson’s campaign is D.O.A. for election day.

According to HPI:

Daniels is poised for a resounding victory. The governor leads in the Fort Wayne media market 63-31 percent; in South Bend 66-31 percent; Indianapolis 65-29 percent; Louisville 64-25 percent; while the Chicago market is tied at 44 percent. Thompson leads among African-Americans by only a 56-41 percent margin. Daniels’ standing with African-Americans has increased 14 percent since our August poll. Daniels is winning 37 percent of the Democratic vote - more than one in three - and among independents 64-21 percent.

Daniels is also getting 40 percent of the Obama vote. Gov. Daniels’ re-elect stood at 59/33 percent. Mitch Daniels re-elect support is among the strongest in the nation for a Republican holding a major office, Davis said.

Howey went on to say:

The numbers bear out our analysis: that the Thompson campaign is one of the worst gubernatorial campaigns we’ve ever witnessed.

If being 12% down in the South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll is “confidence” what is being down 31 percent?  That must be the “We’ve got them right where we want them” kind of feeling.

The poll didn’t just cover the governor’s race.  It also looked at the presidential race, the 3rd Congressional district race as well as a brief look at the two other statewide races.  The good and, what could be, very bad news after the leap.

First the good news.  Howey/Gauge has John McCain up by a slim margin at 47 - 45 percent.

McCain’s 2-percent lead is almost identical to our Aug. 29-30 survey in which McCain led 45-43 percent. In the October numbers, both candidates have solidified their base with only 8 percent of Republicans favoring Obama and 7 percent of the Democrats favoring McCain. Troubling for Obama is that 32 percent of Hillary Clinton primary voters are backing McCain. Obama leads with independents by a narrow 39-37 percent. And white voters favor McCain 53-39 percent, compared to 50-38 percent in August.

The intangible is how dynamic the Obama ground game will be compared to the “old-fashioned” McCain effort. Lake County Surveyor George Van Til told HPI on Monday that he has watched in amazement at 500 people a day waiting patiently in the foyer of the Lake County Government Center in Crown Point last week. “It was double that today,” Van Til said. “They were old, young, black, white, Hispanic. You can see absolute determination on their faces.” He noted that in other elections, delays caused voters to fidget, complain or leave. “These people are waiting patiently. People are unhappy and scared. People just want change.” There were similar stories in Indianapolis, where early voting waiting lines in Washington Township were up to two or three hours over the weekend. Sources told HPI that 2,000 voted at the J. Everett Light Center at North Central HS on Monday. There have been 286,000 early voters this year, compared to 260,550 in 2004. In Indianapolis there have been 80,000.

The bad news? The Howey/Gauge poll shows that this year could be it for Mark Souder as he’s down 44 - 41 percent.

Our analysis last spring was that if we were talking about the 3rd CD in late October, there would be a national wave developing. So here we are and Howey/Gauge has Montagano leading Rep. Souder 44-41 percent. Montagano has campaigned hard and has 83 percent name ID. Souder’s re-elect stands at 35 percent and those saying they want to elect someone new is at 50 percent. In the Fort Wayne media market, it stood at 53 percent.

Souder’s fav/unfav stood at 42/33 percent, Montagano’s at 33/22 percent. Montagano leads in Allen County 50-40 percent and 48/38 percent among self-identified independents.

And lest you question whether this polling was done before Montagano’s “Sugar Daddy” story came out…

This poll was taken after the news media began covering the story of Montagano’s father buying him a $326,000 home while the candidate - participating in the first election where he would be eligible for Congress - has no discernible income.

They also did a brief look at the other two state wide races and found that Greg Zoeller and Tony Bennett were leading their opponents, but with huge numbers of undecided voters.

“There are so many new voters looking at the top of the ticket,” said Howey/Gauge Pollster Holly Davis. “They have not been concentrating on down ballot races.”

For more information:

Gauge Market Research (the official presentation)
Brian Howey