With the Republican gubernatorial victories last night in Virginia and New Jersey, voters, specifically Independent voters, proved that while they still may personally like President Obama, he is no longer an essential asset to victory for Democrats. Consider the following:
New Jersey
- Obama sent his top pollster to take command of the race.
- Obama visited multiple times, including the day before the election.
- Obama is featured in most of Corzine’s advertising.
- The Democratic Governors Association and DNC all pumped in a ton of money.
- Corzine ran on helping Obama at the state level.
Virginia
- The Democratic Governors Association spent $4 million to get Creigh Deeds elected.
- The Democratic National Committee spent $6 million to get Deeds elected.
- Obama campaigned for Deeds multiple times.
- Organizing for America sent a mail piece to 300,000 “surge voters”, or voters who voted for the first time in 2008, urging them to vote for Deeds.
- Organizing for America set up phone banks for Creigh Deeds.
And the defeat of Creigh Deeds (he the Jill Long Thompson of Virginia just by the margin of his defeat) and Jon Corzine prove that the mere presence of the President isn’t enough to win over voters.
According to Red State:
But one of the signal exit poll items was pointed out by Jake Tapper: in NJ, which Obama carried by 15 points a year ago, 19% of the voters told exit pollsters they were casting ballots in support of Obama, and 20% against. In other words, even in a very pro-Obama electorate, he was a small net drag on the Democratic candidate, and certainly no help despite campaigning ardently for Jon Corzine.
And according to MSNBC’s First Read:
The first warning sign is withs independent voters. In New Jersey, Christie leads Corzine here by 25 points, 58%-33%. And in Virginia, McDonnell leads among indies by an identical 25 points, 62%-37%. As Domenico pointed out below, Obama won indies in Virginia last year by one point, 49%-48%.
The other warning sign is with people who are worried about the nation’s direction. In New Jersey, 90% said they are worried, and Christie leads with these folks by three points, 48%-45%. In Virginia, 84% say they are worried about the nation’s direction, and McDonnell leads among these people by 17 points, 58%-41%.
So what of Doug Hoffman’s loss in NY-23? Doesn’t his loss mean conservatism is still on the way out and that Obama was able to sneak out a victory?
(Read more after the leap)
First of all, the so-called “Republican” candidate Dede Scozzafava wasn’t the “moderate” her supporters claimed her to be. When the Republican is the same page or further to the left of the Democratic candidate Bill Owens, that’s not what we call a recipe for victory. In a pure policy standpoint, Republican may not agree with Bill Owens on a host of issues, but it would have been worse with Scozzafava.
Secondly, she dropped out just days before the election, she was still on the ballot and endorsed the Democrat. Why? Because she and the Obama White House negotiated Scozzafava’s endorsement of her former Democrat rival.
Third, the President never set foot in NY-23. He sent Joe Biden. Yep, that’s how well he thought of the Owens campaign.
While conservative Republicans saw NY-23 as sort of a “Hill to Die On”, Hoffman’s performance and the fact that Scozzafava dropped out due to the she was polling in a distant third, with some polls having Hoffman leading, leaves conservative Republicans with the silver lining that despite all those factors going against Doug Hoffman, he almost won.
The difference for Owens come November of next year is that he will be facing a unite GOP.
So while election may not have been a mandate against the President, what it did show is that Independent voters are no longer breaking for Democrat candidates and that just by bringing in the President doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed electoral success.
