The Rothenberg Political Report has changed its rating of the race:

While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow’s race to fill the remainder of the late-Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat.

Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone’s expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win. Move from Toss-Up to Lean Takeover.

Dick Morris also notes the importance of this race in a context far beyond just Scott Brown winning or Republicans having 41 votes in the Senate.

(Read more after the leap)

By: Wes Culver

Last year when state government worked to produce a property tax reform plan that capped property taxes, they took a step in the right direction.  The problem of rising property taxes is a regular story in Indiana.   It is almost with cyclical frequency that every decade or so we see Hoosier property owners rightfully express indignation about rising property tax bills.

In 2008 the property tax reform effort centered on shifting the cost of some local government activities to the state, raising the statewide sales tax from 6% to 7%, an overall increase of 16%, and placing caps on how high a tax bill could go in relation to the assessed value of the property.  For residential real estate the cap was placed at 1%, for rental property the cap was set at 2%, and for business property the cap was placed at 3%.  In 2010 these caps will be fully phased in and already many Hoosier property owners are seeing some form of property tax relief.

If we are not careful, though, the plan that we passed in 2008 will need to be fixed again in the not-so-distant future because we failed to address the fundamental and underlying cause behind property tax increases: government spending.

As legislators look to bring more permanent tax relief to Hoosiers, we must also realize that reigning in tax increases means reigning in government spending. Unless something further is done the end result will be higher taxes for all of us.  The only difference is in whether we pay them via a property tax or some other tax.

(Read more below the fold)

Fellow Republicans,

It took 175 days, a special session, numerous newspaper editorials, and the threat of a government shutdown, but Speaker Pat Bauer has finally freed his fellow Democrats and allowed them to vote on a state budget.  After finally passing both the Democrat-controlled House and the Republican-led Senate, the result is a responsible budget that protects taxpayers.

You may remember that prior to the start of the special session, Governor Daniels gave a televised statewide address in which he outlined five simple conditions he needed met in order to sign a budget: No tax increases; at least $1 billion left in state reserves; that legislators cut $1 for every $1 they spent beyond his proposed budget; that one time funds be spent for one time purposes; and that no gimmicks were used.

After weeks of grandstanding and foot dragging, House Democrats have finally joined with legislative Republicans to ensure those conditions were met.

This budget is good for Hoosiers for a variety of other reasons. Foremost, when you look around the country, you’ll see most states are looking at tax increases or massive cuts, including education. Indiana is doing neither, and that’s a credit to our governor and our Republican legislators.  In fact, not only are we increasing education funding, but the governor’s ‘education trigger’ has been preserved to drive more money to our schools if revenues are better than projected.

The budget also addresses many other issues that are important to Hoosier families, especially as far as the education of our children is concerned.  For instance, there are no caps on the growth of charter schools; money is provided for a scholarship tax credit that could help many low-income families send their children to non-public schools; and for the first time ever, Indiana is exploring the possibility of online schools that extend learning beyond the traditional walls of the classroom. These are the kinds of reforms that will aid Dr. Tony Bennett and his work on behalf of Hoosier kids.

None of this would have been possible without you.  We know that legislators heard your phone calls, read your letters to the editor, and saw your support for the Republicans’ responsible budget.  Thanks for all that you do, and for supporting our party.

Sincerely,

Murray Clark
Chairman
Indiana Republican Party

Remember a few weeks ago when Mitch urged folks to come testify before the budget committee about how the budget might impact them?

Remember how the Democrats threw a temper tantrum and walked out because they didn’t want to hear what people had to say?

Well, it seems that they want to hear “testimony” from certain people.

They just don’t want to hear testimony from you.

An email sent out today by Terry Goodin:

—–Original Message—–
From: h66@in.gov [mailto:h66@in.gov]
Sent: Wednesday, June 24, 2009 9:41 AM
Subject: Public Hearing on Proposed Budget

===================================
Statehouse eUpdate from State Rep. Terry Goodin
===================================

Friends -

I would like to share with you the schedule for the public hearings on the proposed budget. I encourage you to come and testify for the issues that matter to you. The Governor and both caucuses need to hear from you to know how the budget will effect Hoosiers. If you have the chance – please come up.

Wednesday:
Starts at 9:30 am
-Morning and Early Afternoon: Higher Education and SSACI
-Afternoon: School Superintendents

Thursday:
Starts at 9:30 am
-All Day: K-12 Educators, Busines Officials, Superintendents, School Board Members

Friday:
Starts at 9:30 am
-Morning: Social Services (Mental Health, Community Health, Soldiers and Sailors, etc)
-Afternoon: Business Groups/Potential CIB

Saturday:
Starts at 11:00 am
-CIB/HB 1447

Thank you.

Terry

===================================
Thank you for your interest in state legislative matters. Please visit my website at:
www.in.gov/h66
===================================
If you have received this Statehouse eUpdate by error or wish to be removed from the distribution list, simply reply to this email, typing “unsubscribe” in the subject line. Thank you.
===================================

Hypocrite.

By: Wes Culver (R-Goshen, Ind.)

Unless they work in education or state government, not many people know or understand the complicated formula that determines how much funding each school corporation receives each year.

Each school corporation receives a specific dollar amount per student. So, two schools with the same number of students will receive a different dollar amount because the amount per student is different.

The amount per student can be immense. The lowest amount received by a school corporation in 2008 was $5,414 per student in Northwest Allen School Corp. The school corporation with the highest rate per-student was Gary School Corp., receiving $9,010 per student.

Several community members have voiced their concern with this variation. Why, they ask, does the state give more money per student to some schools and less to others?

Generally, tuition support for schools is tied to the numbers of students — “average daily membership” in bureaucratic terms — in each school district. As such, districts with declining enrollments face decreasing amounts of tuition support.

However, districts are still provided partial funding for students who have left the district, which is known as “ghosting.” Ghosting may occur when a student was enrolled at the start of the school year and then left sometime during that year.

Keep in mind, school districts have five years before funding is completely phased out for that student — 100 percent the first year, 80 percent the second, then 60 percent, 40 percent and, in the fifth year, 20 percent.

School systems with declining student enrollments have benefited greatly from this method, while those with growing enrollments have suffered, even though both face the same problem of changing enrollment.

The governor’s budget wants to finally end ghosting to make sure the money follows the student. If the student is not there, the money for that student wouldn’t be, either. However, the House Democrat’s budget proposal includes the ghosting formula.

A declining enrollment creates no more problems than an increasing enrollment. Officials from schools with declining enrollments say the students leaving are not from one class, but rather a few from every classroom; therefore, they cannot get rid of any teachers. However, neither can a growing school corporation place all the new students in one classroom and hire one teacher.

Growing schools are forced to handle their greater enrollments by redistricting to most efficiently handle students; declining schools should do the same.

These are not easy problems for superintendents to resolve. But that is what their job is and why we put them in those positions. Tough decisions aren’t always easy for businesses and families either, but they have to make them when their income declines.

I don’t think we should ask our schools to do anything we wouldn’t do as families and business people. They should not be exempt from the struggles everyone else faces.

Wes Culver (R-Goshen) represents House District 49 in the Indiana House of Representatives.  His website is www.electwesculver.com.

Our friend Abdul Hakeem-Shabazz twittered the latest from the budget negotiations at the State House ahead of the upcoming special session next week.

Yesterday, Rep. William Crawford (D-Indianapolis) and his Dem cohorts walked out of the meeting, allegedly in protest over Gov. Daniels receiving “too much credit” for crafting the budget.

Today, Abdul twitters the following:

“Bill Crawford says Ds are going to push for a 1 yr budget again.”

Then later, “Ds say they will cut $4 mil from virtual charter schools.”

And finally “House Ds say they are throwing out the budget and starting all over!”

Let’s just call this as it is … the Dems are living up to their party symbol.

No not THAT one… this one:

By: State Rep. Wes Culver

  In the next few weeks Indiana legislators will be reconvening for a special legislative session in Indianapolis to finish the work of passing a state budget.  The only piece of legislation that the Indiana General Assembly was required to pass this year was the state budget.  Unfortunately,  it failed to do so because some chose to promote spending policies that our state simply cannot afford.

 During the final hours of the regular session I voted against the version of the state budget that was brought to the House floor.  In my opinion, it adhered to flawed budget principles and was fiscally irresponsible when considered against the backdrop of our state’s economy.  I also believed that if we passed that version of the budget we would be doing the state more harm than good because of the tax increases that would have been needed to support the same level of funding in future budgets.

 As we go back into session it is my hope that the special committee tasked with negotiating the outline of the revised budget will present us with a pro-growth budget, a budget that I and other legislators can vote for in good conscience.  Our state must not have a budget that places us squarely on the path to deficits and higher taxes.  Fortunately, we as a state are not contending with the billion dollar budget shortfalls that plague most states today.  Passing a pro-growth budget, however, will mean more than just hitting auto-pilot and allowing politics to proceed as usual. 

 The right budget for our state will be one that encourages economic growth and positions our state to thrive whenever the national economic climate changes for the better.  Such a budget will be defined by several notable characteristics.  First, it will not assume that past revenue levels indicate future revenue levels.  The steady decline in revenues below the rate forecasted by experts should give pause to those who believe we do not need to adjust our state’s fiscal belt.  State government must learn a lesson from individual Hoosiers and businesses that are cutting back and looking for ways to save money.

(Read more below)

By: Brian Sikma

On Saturday my able colleague, Josh Gillespie, interviewed Rep. Jackie Walorski on his Hoosier Access Radio/Josh Gillespie Show feature.  During the interview Rep. Walorski said that she would be introducing several amendments to bills being considered by the House today that would all have the effect of deny Planned Parenthood state funding as penalization for their actions to cover up statutory rape and child molestation.  Although Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi and the Attorney General’s office are both making progress on legal actions against Planned Parenthood as a result of the organization’s illegal behavior, Rep. Walorski is interested in making sure that Hoosier women and girls are not repeatedly failed by Planned Parenthood in the future.

Instead of coming forward and declaring that what took place at its clinics was wrong, Planned Parenthood has made token concessions (only suspending and terminating the employees involved after the story grabbed national headlines) and insisted on its innocence.  In a direct response to Rep. Walorski’s efforts, Planned Parenthood has now launched a lobbying campaign to fire up its base and get them to urge state lawmakers to oppose attempts to deny them state funds.  

I am told that the House of Representative’s phone switchboard at the Statehouse has been jam packed today with calls telling legislators not to vote against women’s health.  Legislators have also been getting an earful in their e-mail Inboxes.

Here is a copy of an e-mail sent to one legislator (and it appears to be a form e-mail that is being distributed to all legislators): [Read More Below The Fold]

Podcast: Play in new window

By: Brian Sikma

It looks like state higher education funds and public broadcasting money might not be the only funding cut from the state budget this legislative session. In the wake of two videos that showed Planned Parenthood of Indiana clinics carrying out procedures that violated or willfully skirted state laws designed to protect minors who may be the victims of sexual abuse, State Representative Jackie Walorski (R-Jimtown) has called for the de-funding of Planned Parenthood.

The two videos of Indiana Planned Parenthood clinics, one in Bloomington and one in Indianapolis, were released within weeks of each other late last year. The first video, which captured the actions of Bloomington clinic worker, prompted Walorski to call for the Attorney General to investigate the matter. After the second video was released showing a similar incident at an Indianapolis Planned Parenthood clinic, Walorski asked the Family and Social Services Administration to suspend any funding it may be sending to Planned Parenthood.

Already the publicity case she has built up against Planned Parenthood has paid off when a public outcry was raised against a speaking appearance by Betty Cockrum, President and CEO of Planned Parenthood of Indiana. Cockrum was scheduled to speak to the St. Joseph County League of Women Voters at one South Bend location on Friday, January 9th, but public pressure forced the owners of the venue to cancel the event. Cockrum must now speak at a different location.

Rep. Walorski has done an excellent job in keeping the pressure on Planned Parenthood and those of us that support the pro-life position need to support her ongoing efforts in this battle. Planned Parenthood is having a hard time doing damage control and if pro-life advocates keep working hard, the longstanding friendly relationship between Planned Parenthood and various health-related state agencies could come to a close. Life is moving forward.

Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, Republicans and Democrats…it starts today!  For all of you who were concerned that nothing was going to happen in politics and government in 2009 in Indiana just because elections weren’t taking place, then my friends you will be sadly..or maybe joyously mistaken.  But being the politicos you are, whether by practice or by hobby, you knew the 2009 legislative session that starts today was going to be interesting.

As we begin, it appears as if the buzz words around the State House will be “cuts”, “reform” and tax caps.  As in in monster budget cuts all across the state (or flat-lining when it comes to education, but not increasing even one budget in the midst of a national financial crisis doesn’t seem to bother Democrats) as well as government reform in terms of total elimination of township government and dramatic re-structuring of county elected offices (note to the the Indy Star and other forms of media: making an elected office an appointed office does not equal elimination of that office.  These positions will still exists).

Governor Daniels’ speech yesterday to the Indianapolis Rotary Club outlined his vision for the 2009 budget.  As it stands, the budget will only increase by $2 Million though cuts will be made to agency budgets across the board.  The “third rail” of the budget, Education, will not see cuts but will not see much of an increase either..much to the chagrin of “The Hair” and that demagogue of lobbying organizations, the Indiana State Teachers Association (ISTA).  Governor Daniels would like to see more….

(Read more after the leap)

So far, my favorite line of the whole thing is Governor Daniels calling the Pat “the Hair” Bauer’s desire to tap the State’s surplus “the height of folly”.  I’ll give the governor this, he sure knows how to bring the “zing!”.