Poor Brad the Beautiful. Without a wave at his back and a weak opponent to let him slide, he’s in deep trouble indeed.

The Courier & Press:

As he begins the statewide roll-out of his Senate campaign, U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth is doubling down on Democratic efforts to lower health care costs while reducing the number of Americans who are uninsured.

“We can’t just sit back and stop. It’s not fair to the American people,” he said Monday after a stop at Thompson & Skinner, Inc., an Indianapolis plant that manufactures magnetic materials for military use.

But if they are to do that, national Republicans say negotiators should scrap bills that have passed the House and Senate and start over. Ellsworth, who voted for the health care reform bill that won passage in the House, said he wouldn’t go that far.

“There’s a lot of good ideas in those bills,” he said. “They’re not perfect, but to stop this piece of legislation dead and start over is not the answer.”

Republicans immediately criticized Ellsworth, saying Monday he “let his true liberal colors show” while going against Hoosiers’ wishes.

“I don’t think it’s coincidental that at the moment he most needs the help of liberal Washington Democrats, he’s more willing to sing from their song book while ignoring the broad opposition back home,” said Trevor Foughty, spokesman for the Indiana Republican Party.

That’s what Indiana needs, right? More votes for ObamaCare in the Senate.

Or within the margin of error and thus effectively tied.

From The Hill:

Former Sen. Dan Coats (R) is in a statistical tie with Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) in a hypothetical match-up in this fall’s Indiana Senate race, according to a Daily Kos poll set to be released Monday.

Coats is considered the GOP establishment’s top choice to replace Sen. Evan Bayh (D) and Ellsworth emerged as the main Democratic contender after Rep. Baron Hill (D) said he will not seek the Democratic nod on Saturday.

The Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll was sent around Sunday by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). It showed Coats leading Ellsworth 37 percent to 36 percent with 27 percent undecided among all those surveyed, but the poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

On the other hand, ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), who is one of five GOPers seeking the nomination, leads Ellsworth 40 percent to 24 percent with 26 percent undecided.

The surveyed polled 600 likely voters in Indiana from Feb. 22-24. The party breakdown of the 600 likely voters is 41 percent Republican, 36 percent Democrat and 23 percent Independent.

Even though Hostettler looks more attractive than Coats in the poll, it was taken before Hill ruled himself out of the race and has a high-number of undecided voters, meaning that the results are still up in the air.

I look forward to seeing the internals of this poll when it comes out tomorrow.

My initial observation is that this poll fits into my evolving theory that Coats is weak against Ellsworth because of Coats’ moderate (some would say liberal) voting record on things like judges and gun control, and his (almost proudly-touted) Washington insider status.

Of course, at the same time, this result is at odds with a recent Rasmussen poll. It is, after all, a lefty poll. But then why would Hostettler lead? The internals should be interesting.

Sounds like Baron Hill would rather get defeated in a congressional election than wager his political career on a statewide loss.  He’s saving that for 2012.

Via Politico:

Indiana Rep. Baron Hill (D) announced Saturday that he will not run for the Senate in 2010.

The decision by Hill, a five-term congressman from Seymour, leaves Rep. Brad Ellsworth the strong favorite to become the Democratic nominee to succeed retiring Sen. Evan Bayh.

Hill praised Bayh in statement released Saturday, and said he intended to remain in Congress.

“Evan has been a devoted public servant to Hoosiers and a fellow companion in pushing for Congress to curb its reckless spending,” said Hill. “And while I agree with him that the partisanship in Washington is alarming, to reference my athletic past – I opt to stay in the game and continue to serve as an independent voice for my Southern Indiana constituents.”

Hill also signaled his support for Ellsworth, a two-term House member and former Vanderburgh County sheriff.

“I believe my friend and colleague, Congressman Brad Ellsworth, is the right man to fulfill the task of ensuring a Democrat is elected to succeed Senator Bayh,” said Hill.

So at this point the Democrats have heavy favorite Brad Ellsworth, Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott and potentially (really keeping my fingers crossed on this one) Hoosier rocker John “Cougar” Mellencamp.  McDermott sounds like the Jill Long Thompson of the bunch.  And since the Democrats choice won’t be made by the voters, the State Party will get the candidate they want, not the one the voters want.  And there really is no chance Johnny Cougar gets involved.

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Baron says that he might run, but that he wants to have “conversations” first.

From the Indy Star:

U.S. Rep. Baron Hill said today that he isn’t ruling out a run for the U.S. Senate now that Evan Bayh has said he won’t seek re-election and will retire at the end of his term.

Hill — in his first public event since Bayh’s announcement a week ago — said he needed time to speak with the senator and others about the possibility before making a final decision.

“I’m open to the idea,” said Hill, D-9th District. “It doesn’t mean that I’m going to do it.”

Because Bayh announced his retirement just one day before a crucial filing deadline, no Democratic candidates qualified for the ballot. That means the Indiana Democratic Party’s 32-member central committee will choose a nominee.

Hill had been out of the country visiting troops on a military-sponsored trip until this weekend and had been unavailable to comment about the Senate seat.

While he was away, U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth, D-8th District, announced he would be a candidate for the Democratic nomination. Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott and Gary School Board member Darren Washington also told party officials they intended to run.

Hill said he is scheduled to speak with Bayh today and wanted to talk with others as well.

“Let me have those conversations first and then we’ll see where this goes,” Hill said.

Let’s think about this for a moment. Evan Bayh not only timed his departure to come at the last possible moment so as to prevent a genuine primary challenge, but he also timed it to occur while Baron was out of the country visiting troops overseas and would be unable to react for an entire week.

While Baron was in the Middle East, Brad Ellsworth jumped into the race head first, arranging a replacement to run in his spot and dropping his Congressional candidacy entirely.

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Boy, Brad Ellsworth sure thought he would be clever. He jumped into the Senate race with both feet. He even arranged for his buddy, state representative Trent Van Haaften, to switch over to run for the 8th District seat. And Ellsworth has withdrawn from the 8th District primary ballot, effectively making Van Haaften the Democratic nominee.

And a deeply flawed nominee he is. He is rolling in special interest money and lobbyist gifts. He has repeatedly voted for a left-wing agenda in Indianapolis, and he is quite possibly closer to Obama (he endorsed him) than Ellsworth (who never really did).

The Courier & Press:

Citing the absence of an incumbent, the current political climate and issues that could make presumptive Democratic nominee Trent Van Haaften “an easy target for Republican ad makers,” the Cook Political Report changed its assessment of a “likely Democratic” win with Ellsworth in the race to “lean Republican” without him.

“The early leader in the GOP field, cardiologist Larry Bucshon, lacks deep roots in the district and has yet to get his campaign fully up and running, but doesn’t have a record to attack, either,” the Washington-based political newsletter stated. “Running as a political outsider, (Bucshon) has raised $100,000 for the race so far and should certainly be able to raise much more now that Ellsworth is abandoning his re-election bid.”

In the 24 hours after state Rep. Van Haaften of Mount Vernon, Ind., filed his candidacy to replace Ellsworth, the newly reconfigured 8th District race began to come into focus.

Van Haaften was part of a group of Democratic legislators who endorsed Barack Obama over Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 Indiana Democratic presidential primary. Among the roughly half-dozen supporters who cheered him Saturday was DeLyn Beard, chief Vanderburgh County organizer for the pro-Obama organization Evansville for Change, and Posey County-based Obama volunteer Ann Shank.

When even the C&P is pointing out your shady doings as a legislator, you have a problem:

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From the Courier-Journal:

U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, D-9th District, is among those that some Democrats are listing as possible candidates for U.S. Senate now that Evan Bayh has said he won’t seek re-election.

Hill, a former state lawmaker and businessman from Seymour, has served in the U.S. House for 10 of the past 12 years. He was defeated once – in 2004 – by Republican Mike Sodrel, who is vying for the chance to run against Hill again this year.

Hill also ran for U.S. Senate in 1990 when he lost to Republican Dan Coats, who is expected to enter this year’s race as well.

“I’m sure Baron Hill will be among several Democrats who will take a look at the race,” said Mike Jones, the Democrats’ 9th District chairman and a member of the party’s state central committee.

Jones said U.S. Reps Joe Donnelly, D-2nd District, and Brad Ellsworth, D-8th District, would also be possible candidates.

“But that creates more questions about their seats,” he said. “I don’t think there’s any question that the Democrats have several people that would have the capacity to wage a campaign for U.S. Senate. But there are other question marks about what happens next.”

Hill is out of the country on a week-long trip military-hosted trip. At the request of the military and because of security concerns, Hill’s office said it cannot disclose the trip itinerary.

Hill’s spokeswoman, Katie Moreau, said Monday that she has no way of reaching the congressman.

“We honestly never spoke about this before he left,” she said.

Unless a Democrat can collect the 4,500 signatures necessary to get on the primary ballot by Tuesday – something political observers said would be nearly impossible – the Indiana Democratic Party’s central committee will fill the vacancy on the ballot after the primary.

Former state Democratic chairman Kip Tew said Monday that he expects Hill will be among the candidates the committee will consider.

But he also named former state attorney general Joe Hogsett, former Indianapolis mayor Bart Peterson, Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel and Ellsworth as possibilities.

“We have a pretty good bench on our side,” Tew said.

House Speaker Pat Bauer, D-South Bend, said Monday he is not interested in running.

“I’d rather support someone else,” he said.

But Bauer said he was too stunned by the news that Bayh wouldn’t run to speculate about a replacement.

Baron picked a bad time to go overseas for a photo op, given that he’s out of contact for a week and Brad Ellsworth is already itching to run.

There’s also the tiny matter of who will get nominated for Congress by the Democrats if either Hill or Ellsworth (or Donnelly, for that matter) chooses to run. Baron Hill faces primary opponents. Ellsworth and Donnelly (currently) do not. Insignificant though they may be, the mere presence on the ballot of Hill’s opponents prevents the Democrats from backfilling the ballot vacancy with a serious candidate unless another (serious) candidate files by Friday at noon. That is not the case in the 2nd or the 8th.

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Our gift came a day late, but it seems that Evan Bayh read our breakup letter and decided to leave the relationship before we ended it in November.  I can’t say that I am surprised by the announcement.  While Bayh claims that “[e]ven in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election,” the people standing outside his offices with proverbial torches and pitchforks have told a different story.  I believe his support for the health care bill in Congress would have ensured a loss in November.

I take two things from Senator Bayh’s announcement today:

1.  I believe this is a way for Senator Bayh to save face from a potential walloping in November and hopefully keep his name out there for a future cabinet appointment, a spot on a future Democratic ticket for vice-president or a potential Presidential run of his own.

2. My other thought on the motivation for Bayh’s abrupt retirement is also tied into his future political aspirations.  Without an election to win in November, Senator Bayh will not have an electorate at home to appease and he will be free to vote for a potential health care bill without fearing for his seat.   He knows that the health care bill in Congress is not popular in Indiana, but voting for it would be a good quality for a future run for higher office on the Democrat ticket.

I make no attempt to know what is in a person’s heart, but judging by his past actions and propensity toward doing what is right for himself rather than the people of Indiana, I believe there is more to this story than meets the eye.  Keep the pressure on Bayh, Lugar and all the other Senators to vote against this health care bill.  I assure you that Harry Reid (who might also be making an exit from the Senate come November) would love to make use of Bayh no longer having an election to win in Indiana in an attempt to pass this health care bill.

And now that the Democrat side of the ticket is open, there are already names floating for the Democrat Nomination:

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Roll call vote is here.

Baron’s statement is here.

Donnelly’s statement is here.

Ellsworth, as of this posting, is hiding (probably still begging Right-to-Life to leave him alone) and hasn’t put a statement out yet.

Poor Baron. He realized too late that he’s probably about to have an opponent capable of holding him accountable for his liberal votes. He hasn’t had that so far.

Accountability’s coming, Baron, and it’s driving a semi truck.

All five Indiana Democrats in the House voted for government run health care.  All four Republicans voted against.

See the health care vote here.

Just remember Congressman Brad Ellsworth brokered the very deal that allowed this bill to come up for a vote.

It continues to surprise me the gambles that Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill are taking with the health care legislation.  Now comes this letter from the National Right to Life.

Via Red State:

Speaker Pelosi, Henry Waxman, and the White House are engaged in peddling another phony compromise. This is all theater. The “negotiations” are scripted ad phony. The language being circulated, and loosely associated with Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-In.), does not mitigate either of the abortion-subsidy provisions contained in H.R. 3962. This language is intended only to wrap the pro-abortion provisions in additional layers of concealment. The latest version of the Democrats’ abortion compromise being circulated contains a money-laundering scheme that is truly laughable. Some of the people involved in this enterprise apparently think that their constituents are simpletons.

The bill explicitly authorizes the federal insurance plan, the public option, to pay for all elective abortions. When the public option pays for abortions, it will be spending federal funds, because that is the only kind of money that a federal agency can spend in the real world. Henry Waxman and his front men can write language in the bill calling the money anything he wants, but we care about the reality, not what they call it.

The “Ellsworth Amendment” has been independently analyzed by experts at the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and at the House Pro-Life Caucus. Their conclusions regarding its substantive (non)effect are fully consistent with those reached independently by NRLC. However, my comments here represent only NRLC.

Mr. Ellsworth issued a press release in which he said, “When you’re going into battle, it’s a good idea to have a contingency plan.” I say, when you’re going into battle, it is always unpleasant to be bayoneted in the back by somebody who said that he was on your side. The Ellsworth language serves no purpose except to assist the pro-abortion House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, to peel votes away from the authentic pro-life amendment, the Stupak Amendment.

The Ellsworth language about the public option is particularly revealing in demonstrating the utter phoniness of the exercise. They just want to pretend that if the federal agency hires private contractors to handle the money, it is not government funding of abortion. This is already being referred to in pro-life circles on Capitol Hill as “the Ellsworth abortion money-laundering scam.”

They can write in a money-laundering scheme under which the federal agency hires a contractor to deliver the checks to the abortionists, but only a simpleton would think it is not government funding of abortion. Any lawmaker who votes for this scheme is voting to create a nationwide federal agency program that will pay for abortion on demand, with government funds.

You can go here and call your legislator to oppose the Democrats’ health care plan.

If this amendment passes Ellsworth will have a lot of explaining to do. The 8th District may be a swing district, but it is still very pro-life and the voters don’t get the wool pulled over their eyes to often, if at all. So, how will Brad Ellsworth explain his actions now?

It’s come down to this.  According to The Hill, House Democrats are pushing for a vote on Pelosicare this Saturday, possibly at 6pm.

An aide to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Wednesday that a vote could happen at 6 p.m. on Saturday, a schedule House Rules Committee Chairwoman Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) suggested in reports Wednesday afternoon.

“It could happen at 6 p.m. on Saturday, but no final decisions have been made,” said Nadeam Elshami, a spokesman for Pelosi.

House Rules Chairwoman Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) said the goal is to finish Saturday evening. It’s not clear at this point, she said, whether the goal is to finish by 6 p.m. or start voting at 6 p.m.

This is the second health care reform bill the Democrats have worked to get out of the House.  Their original bill, H.R. 3200 the America’s Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009, has been tossed aside for Nancy Pelosi’s H.R. 3962 the “Affordable Health Care for America Act” which now sits at 2,032 pages, a gross size for any piece of legislation.

And while the Democrats have demonized Republicans for not offering any alternatives )a laughable notion as members of the Republican Study Committee have offered over 40 health care bills which have been relegated to sit in committee) it would appear as if the Democrats only hump they have to get over is themselves if they want this bill to pass.

According to the Congress Daily section of National Journal:

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It seems BHO is playing a pickup game of roundball with some Indiana Congressmen. Oddly enough, Andre Carson (D-7th) is not one of the participants. Congressman Baron “This is MY Town Hall” Hill, and Bloody 8th pretty boy Brad Ellsworth along with other Democrat congressmen and cabinet secretaries for a game of hoops with BHO himself.

From the IndyStar:

Rep. Baron Hill, a member of the Indiana Basketball Hall of Fame, and Rep. Brad Ellsworth were among the 11 House members and four cabinet secretaries invited to an evening game, the White House announced today.

“He’s been watching clips from the movie `Hoosiers’ for inspiration this morning,” said Ellsworth spokeswoman Elizabeth Farrar.

President Barack Obama is playing basketball earlier in the day with the National Naval Medical Center Marine Wounded Warrior team.

That should warm him up for the evening game which, like the earlier one, is closed to the press.

How about that? Even a game of hoops falls under “Don’t tape me, bro!”.