Listen to it carefully.

That’s the sound of the future of the Indiana Democratic Party.

And there’s nothing good for Evan Bayh there.

Should he run for Governor in 2012 (as every Democrat I talk to seems to take as an article of faith), a Hoosier would have had to have been 50 to have voted for Birch Bayh. They would have had to have been 38 to have voted for Bayh the last time that he was governor.

Despite his relative youth, Bayh will have all of Dan Coats’ current “blast from the past” problems and then some if he takes another run at the Indiana Statehouse.

And the Democrats that have come into the electorate after the defeat of Birch Bayh and the departure of Bayh from the Statehouse?

They’ll have moved on (and many already have).

So will Indiana.

Baron says that he might run, but that he wants to have “conversations” first.

From the Indy Star:

U.S. Rep. Baron Hill said today that he isn’t ruling out a run for the U.S. Senate now that Evan Bayh has said he won’t seek re-election and will retire at the end of his term.

Hill — in his first public event since Bayh’s announcement a week ago — said he needed time to speak with the senator and others about the possibility before making a final decision.

“I’m open to the idea,” said Hill, D-9th District. “It doesn’t mean that I’m going to do it.”

Because Bayh announced his retirement just one day before a crucial filing deadline, no Democratic candidates qualified for the ballot. That means the Indiana Democratic Party’s 32-member central committee will choose a nominee.

Hill had been out of the country visiting troops on a military-sponsored trip until this weekend and had been unavailable to comment about the Senate seat.

While he was away, U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth, D-8th District, announced he would be a candidate for the Democratic nomination. Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott and Gary School Board member Darren Washington also told party officials they intended to run.

Hill said he is scheduled to speak with Bayh today and wanted to talk with others as well.

“Let me have those conversations first and then we’ll see where this goes,” Hill said.

Let’s think about this for a moment. Evan Bayh not only timed his departure to come at the last possible moment so as to prevent a genuine primary challenge, but he also timed it to occur while Baron was out of the country visiting troops overseas and would be unable to react for an entire week.

While Baron was in the Middle East, Brad Ellsworth jumped into the race head first, arranging a replacement to run in his spot and dropping his Congressional candidacy entirely.

(Read more after the leap)

Boy, Brad Ellsworth sure thought he would be clever. He jumped into the Senate race with both feet. He even arranged for his buddy, state representative Trent Van Haaften, to switch over to run for the 8th District seat. And Ellsworth has withdrawn from the 8th District primary ballot, effectively making Van Haaften the Democratic nominee.

And a deeply flawed nominee he is. He is rolling in special interest money and lobbyist gifts. He has repeatedly voted for a left-wing agenda in Indianapolis, and he is quite possibly closer to Obama (he endorsed him) than Ellsworth (who never really did).

The Courier & Press:

Citing the absence of an incumbent, the current political climate and issues that could make presumptive Democratic nominee Trent Van Haaften “an easy target for Republican ad makers,” the Cook Political Report changed its assessment of a “likely Democratic” win with Ellsworth in the race to “lean Republican” without him.

“The early leader in the GOP field, cardiologist Larry Bucshon, lacks deep roots in the district and has yet to get his campaign fully up and running, but doesn’t have a record to attack, either,” the Washington-based political newsletter stated. “Running as a political outsider, (Bucshon) has raised $100,000 for the race so far and should certainly be able to raise much more now that Ellsworth is abandoning his re-election bid.”

In the 24 hours after state Rep. Van Haaften of Mount Vernon, Ind., filed his candidacy to replace Ellsworth, the newly reconfigured 8th District race began to come into focus.

Van Haaften was part of a group of Democratic legislators who endorsed Barack Obama over Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 Indiana Democratic presidential primary. Among the roughly half-dozen supporters who cheered him Saturday was DeLyn Beard, chief Vanderburgh County organizer for the pro-Obama organization Evansville for Change, and Posey County-based Obama volunteer Ann Shank.

When even the C&P is pointing out your shady doings as a legislator, you have a problem:

(Read more after the leap)

You’ve got to admire the brazen chutzpah of Evan Bayh. Even as he whines about the partisanship of Congress in announcing his retirement from the Senate, Bayh timed his departure to be the ultimate partisan act.

By leaving when he did, Bayh completely deprived hundreds of thousands of Hoosier Democrats of the chance to have a say in who will replace him. That decision will now be made by 32 of Bayh’s closest cronies on the Indiana Democratic Party’s State Committee.

Fred Barnes puts it well:

Did Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, who insists he favors more bipartisanship in Washington, schedule the announcement of his retirement to give his party a distinctly partisan advantage in picking a candidate to run for his seat? It sure looks like he did exactly that.

Indeed, Democratic strategists and party officials in Indiana were full of praise for Bayh for delivering his announcement less than 24 hours before the filing deadline for candidates. This means party leaders–32 of them–will pick a candidate (by June 30), and a primary will be averted.

Bayh almost certainly knew exactly what he was doing. He is the most important Democrat in Indiana and one of his close associates, state party chairman Dan Parker, will lead the panel that chooses the Democratic candidate for Senate.

And Bayh is very familiar with the state’s election law. His first elected office was Indiana secretary of state, the official who’s in charge of elections.

Politico, the Washington-based political newspaper, quoted Indiana Democrats as saying the timing of Bayh’s announcement was beneficial to their party. “I’m sure Sen. Bayh was well aware of the need for the party to have as much input as possible,” Marion County Democratic chairman Edward Treacy told Politico. “He knew what he was doing.”

The ABC News affiliate in Indianapolis, WRTV, said “Democratic sources” told the station tell that “Sen. Bayh waited ‘til the last minute to prevent other Democrats from entering the race and that also means keeping people out who might not have really had a chance at winning the general election.”

Think about that last line again:

“Democratic sources” told the station tell that “Sen. Bayh waited ‘til the last minute to prevent other Democrats from entering the race and that also means keeping people out who might not have really had a chance at winning the general election.”

Translation: Democratic sources said Evan Bayh wanted until the last minute to prevent Hoosier Democratic primary voters from electing someone (generally liberal and left of the Hoosier mainstream) like themselves.

(Read more after the leap)

“The extremes of both parties have to be willing to accept compromises.” Congress should make changes “so that sensible people can get the job done.” Those were two of the statements that Evan Bayh made when he announced he will not run for another term in 2010. It is all bunk.

I could blog about the political ramifications of Bayh dropping out and the timing of his announcement, but that has been beaten to death. I’m not going to say anything that has not already been said hundreds of times all over the blogosphere. What is worth addressing, though, is the content-free populist rhetoric Bayh used to justify his decision not to defend his endangered seat.

Arguably the most intensely partisan battle over public policy has been on health care. What, exactly, does Bayh view as a “compromise” that Republicans should accept? As usual, populist rhetoric about “getting things done” is long on generalities and short on specifics.

(Read more after the leap)

The money quote is: “That would be one more than Congress has created in the last six months.”

What does this mean for Senator Bayh’s future? I’m not sure, but he seems to be burning bridges with the Democratic Party.

From the Courier-Journal:

U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, D-9th District, is among those that some Democrats are listing as possible candidates for U.S. Senate now that Evan Bayh has said he won’t seek re-election.

Hill, a former state lawmaker and businessman from Seymour, has served in the U.S. House for 10 of the past 12 years. He was defeated once – in 2004 – by Republican Mike Sodrel, who is vying for the chance to run against Hill again this year.

Hill also ran for U.S. Senate in 1990 when he lost to Republican Dan Coats, who is expected to enter this year’s race as well.

“I’m sure Baron Hill will be among several Democrats who will take a look at the race,” said Mike Jones, the Democrats’ 9th District chairman and a member of the party’s state central committee.

Jones said U.S. Reps Joe Donnelly, D-2nd District, and Brad Ellsworth, D-8th District, would also be possible candidates.

“But that creates more questions about their seats,” he said. “I don’t think there’s any question that the Democrats have several people that would have the capacity to wage a campaign for U.S. Senate. But there are other question marks about what happens next.”

Hill is out of the country on a week-long trip military-hosted trip. At the request of the military and because of security concerns, Hill’s office said it cannot disclose the trip itinerary.

Hill’s spokeswoman, Katie Moreau, said Monday that she has no way of reaching the congressman.

“We honestly never spoke about this before he left,” she said.

Unless a Democrat can collect the 4,500 signatures necessary to get on the primary ballot by Tuesday – something political observers said would be nearly impossible – the Indiana Democratic Party’s central committee will fill the vacancy on the ballot after the primary.

Former state Democratic chairman Kip Tew said Monday that he expects Hill will be among the candidates the committee will consider.

But he also named former state attorney general Joe Hogsett, former Indianapolis mayor Bart Peterson, Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel and Ellsworth as possibilities.

“We have a pretty good bench on our side,” Tew said.

House Speaker Pat Bauer, D-South Bend, said Monday he is not interested in running.

“I’d rather support someone else,” he said.

But Bauer said he was too stunned by the news that Bayh wouldn’t run to speculate about a replacement.

Baron picked a bad time to go overseas for a photo op, given that he’s out of contact for a week and Brad Ellsworth is already itching to run.

There’s also the tiny matter of who will get nominated for Congress by the Democrats if either Hill or Ellsworth (or Donnelly, for that matter) chooses to run. Baron Hill faces primary opponents. Ellsworth and Donnelly (currently) do not. Insignificant though they may be, the mere presence on the ballot of Hill’s opponents prevents the Democrats from backfilling the ballot vacancy with a serious candidate unless another (serious) candidate files by Friday at noon. That is not the case in the 2nd or the 8th.

(Read more after the leap)

Still stunned at the news of that Senator Evan Bayh is calling it quits?  Can’t get enough of the news?  Miss his press conference?  Well, here it is.

Indiana GOP Statement on Bayh’s decision not to run for reelection

INDIANAPOLIS–Indiana Republican Party Chairman Murray Clark issued the following statement today in reaction to the announcement by Sen. Evan Bayh that he would not seek a third term in office. Please consider using this statement in your coverage:

“Evan Bayh has served the state of Indiana with distinction for the past 20 years. While at times we were on different sides of the issues, I have always appreciated his commitment to Indiana. First of all, we thank him for his service and wish him well in the future.”

“That said, we have always viewed this Senate race as one that would be competitive. Today’s announcement cements that view and we really like our chances in the general election.” –Indiana Republican Party Chairman Murray Clark

Dan Coats released the following statement:

“Senator Bayh has served the state as governor and senator for two decades; I respect his commitment to public service.

“I will continue to run just as hard and take nothing for granted. I am running so the views and interests of Hoosiers are represented in Washington, so Hoosiers can get back to work in good jobs, and so Americans are safe and secure from threats to our national security.

“As a nation, we are currently headed badly off course; the people of Indiana want to change that and want to be heard in Washington. I will continue to make the case throughout the state that I am in the strongest position to get there and fight for all Hoosiers and all Americans.”

Who, you say?

Tamyra D’Ippolito, who was attempting to mount a primary challenge to Evan Bayh. According to the Indiana Daily Student, she only needs 1,000 or so signatures. On a Bloomington political discussion forum, she says that she needs signatures in particular from the 8th District.

The form to get her signatures is available here.

You do not need to be in contact with the campaign to get signatures. Just print the above form, get signatures of registered voters on it, and get it turned in to your county clerk’s office by noon tomorrow (February 16).

There is not a lot of time. Bayh declined reelection at the last possible minute so that no Democrat would be on the ballot for Senate in Indiana, and thus Democratic Party insiders (largely Bayh cronies) would pick who is on the ballot in November.

If Tamyra D’Ippolito is on the ballot, then that’s all she wrote. They can’t pick anyone else. She will be their nominee, period.

Our gift came a day late, but it seems that Evan Bayh read our breakup letter and decided to leave the relationship before we ended it in November.  I can’t say that I am surprised by the announcement.  While Bayh claims that “[e]ven in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election,” the people standing outside his offices with proverbial torches and pitchforks have told a different story.  I believe his support for the health care bill in Congress would have ensured a loss in November.

I take two things from Senator Bayh’s announcement today:

1.  I believe this is a way for Senator Bayh to save face from a potential walloping in November and hopefully keep his name out there for a future cabinet appointment, a spot on a future Democratic ticket for vice-president or a potential Presidential run of his own.

2. My other thought on the motivation for Bayh’s abrupt retirement is also tied into his future political aspirations.  Without an election to win in November, Senator Bayh will not have an electorate at home to appease and he will be free to vote for a potential health care bill without fearing for his seat.   He knows that the health care bill in Congress is not popular in Indiana, but voting for it would be a good quality for a future run for higher office on the Democrat ticket.

I make no attempt to know what is in a person’s heart, but judging by his past actions and propensity toward doing what is right for himself rather than the people of Indiana, I believe there is more to this story than meets the eye.  Keep the pressure on Bayh, Lugar and all the other Senators to vote against this health care bill.  I assure you that Harry Reid (who might also be making an exit from the Senate come November) would love to make use of Bayh no longer having an election to win in Indiana in an attempt to pass this health care bill.

And now that the Democrat side of the ticket is open, there are already names floating for the Democrat Nomination:

(Read more after the leap)

Evan’s out!

The decision ends one of the brightest political careers by Indiana Democrat, at least for now.

IndyStar.com article

Note: “FOR NOW”! It seems bowing out “for now” is the only way a Democrat can save their political tuchas.

When I read in the Weekly Howey today that Dan Parker has been bashing Senate candidate Dan Coats and acting as a surrogate for Evan Bayh, a light bulb went off in my head. As Howey points out, “Parker…is Bayh’s campaign manager.”

A surrogate is someone who says the nasty stuff so that a campaign or a candidate don’t have to. Often, that is the state political party, which is why Dan Parker has been talking so much lately. But in this case, he is also Bayh’s campaign manager. What that tells me is that every negative statement that Dan Parker makes can be seen as a de facto statement from Evan Bayh.

It’s interesting, then, that Evan Bayh is so scared about his prospect at re-election that his campaign manager is being so negative towards Republican candidates. We already knew he was vulnerable (just look at any recent poll and compare it to one year ago to see how fast he is falling). Now we know that he knows he is vulnerable.

I’m sure that Parker will say that he’s speaking as the Indiana Democrat Chair and not as Bayh’s campaign manager, but it is a blurry line. If he’s attacking one of Bayh’s opponents, shouldn’t we assume he’s speaking on behalf of Evan Bayh? Or should we assume that he has no problem saying one thing as the state chairman, and saying something completely different as Bayh’s campaign manager? This double speak makes him the perfect spokesman for Evan Bayh, who can’t help but speak out both sides of his mouth depending on whether he is in Indiana or Washington, D.C.

For the time being, though, I’m assuming that every time Parker speaks about this race, he’s speaking for Evan Bayh.