Tensions are already rising between Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott and Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominquez from Lake County, as both are considering a Democratic run for Indiana Governor:

The Lake County sheriff is making public a private rebuke Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. hurled at him for arresting one of the mayor’s allies.The mayor accused Sheriff Rogelio “Roy” Dominguez, his second-in-command and Lake County Prosecutor Bernard Carter of “playing politics” following the Sept. 10 arrest by county sheriff’s police of David Woerpel, 5th District Democratic precinct captain, and a close associate of the mayor, along with three other Woerpel family members on charges they were growing marijuana plants in their backyard.

Dominguez released a voice message he said McDermott Jr., left the following Saturday morning on the sheriff’s cell phone.

Something that I’ve been talking about since Baron got returned to Congress in 2006 (which was followed by a mention in a column by Robert Novak) is starting to get noticed in Kentucky (in part because of a post I did here).

From David Hawpe, a columnist in the Courier-Journal:

Across the river, Rep. Baron Hill is quietly going about the business of considering a run for the governorship of Indiana.

OK, this is an old story. Back in 2003, Business First reported that Hill had decided against running, although he “reportedly had been considering” a try for the position then held by the late Gov. Frank O’Bannon.

In 2007, the Evans-Novak Political Report said that Hill “may actually be preparing” for a run against Gov. Mitch Daniels. ENPR added, “The equation is simple: a weakened Republican governor in a mostly conservative state, with no other obviously strong Democratic candidates in the wings …” But it didn’t happen.

This month the blog “Hoosier Access” reports, “The 3rd District Democratic Central Committee will host its annual dinner April 25 at Eagle Glen in Columbia City. Rep. Baron Hill, D-9th, will serve as the keynote speaker for the event.” And the headline explains, “Baron Hill’s 2012 gubernatorial campaign getting started early.”

From time to time, I have thought about suggesting that Hill — a bright and capable person, always pleasant, and never in danger of being scolded by Miss Manners — consider John F. Kennedy’s Profiles in Courage for bedtime reading.

Boy, I never thought that I’d see Baron Hill and courage in the same sentence, let alone Baron Hill and Miss Manners. David Hawpe should go to some of the same Baron town halls that I’ve been to (here, here, here, here, here, or here; or just listen to the recordings of them on YouTube).

Hill is the kind of fellow who stays up nights worrying about the imposition of tough fuel efficiency standards, lest the relatively few auto workers in his district (some work at Honda in Greensburg and some at Ford in Louisville) take notice. He had a tough time with cigarette regulation, despite the small number of tobacco farmers in his constituency. (He ended up doing the right thing).

If doing the right thing is gutting CAFE standards to make the increases in them worthless and less significant than they could have been, then Baron Hill did the right thing.

If jacking up taxes on tobacco to hurt the working class folks who predominantly will end up paying those taxes, then Baron Hill did the right thing.

Now he is the swing vote as the House Energy and Environment Subcommittee gets ready to take up the Waxman-Markey bill that would put a cap on carbon pollution. He’s one of a handful who are “undecided” on the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009. Advocates say it offers a plan to break the country’s dangerous dependence on foreign oil and create new jobs for American workers.

The Environmental Defense Fund says response to the proposal has been positive nearly across the board. EDF says the sponsors have won praise from House colleagues, from business in every economic sector, from the environmental community and from the Obama administration: “They focused on exactly the right issues to quickly build consensus.”

The Department of Energy estimates a carbon cap of this kind would cost the average American household about a dime a day on their utility bills. But Hill is part of the Midwest heartland where coal-fired power plants are the rule.

The “Solve Climate” blog called the 648-page Waxman-Markey proposal a blueprint from Democratic lawmakers: “a brilliantly centrist bill that moves forward while pulling in opposite directions — designed out-of-the-gate to attract the needed votes of heartland lawmakers. That’s why the right wants it destroyed and the left wants it strengthened.”

So there you are, Baron. I’m sure you’ve already checked on the number of Hoosier coal miners in your district and the number of Hoosier coal-fired power plant projects pending. Now put those 648 pages on your bedside table next to Profiles in Courage and start studying.

It will be interesting indeed to see where Baron Hill will stand on cap-and-trade and the gigantic tax increase it will represent to average Americans (to say nothing of the harm it will do to coal miners and coal power plants in southern Indiana).

Also, Hawpe appears to be urging Baron Hill to read the legislation, which has resulted in some sort of incoherent blather from the Clark County Democrats complaining about Hawpe daring to suggest that Baron Hill… doesn’t read the legislation he votes on, or something.

Not that Baron read the pork-stuffed, budget-busting, deficit-expanding “stimulus” bill before he voted for it (and it wasn’t popular in his hometown), but I digress.

Looking at this breakdown, Indiana would appear to be a strong and vibrant red state.  But what went against us in this last election was just how poorly John McCain did in the blue counties.  Of Indiana’s 92 counties, McCain won 77 and still lost 49.9% to 49%.  Just think, there is enough GOP voting population in those 77 counties to come close to matching the DEM voting population of the 15 counties that Obama won.

Now take into consideration how many in those red counties who voted Republican in 2004, voted for Obama this year or voted third party out of distaste for either John McCain or Barack Obama (we’re looking at the Bob Barr and Chuck Baldwin voters – Note to 3rd party voters, I’m not pinning McCain’s loss of Indiana on you).

By contrast, consider the breakdown for Governor Daniels.

(Read more after the leap)

If the latest Howey/Gauge Market Research poll says anything about the Governor’s race, it’s that it’s essentially over and Jill Long Thompson’s campaign is D.O.A. for election day.

According to HPI:

Daniels is poised for a resounding victory. The governor leads in the Fort Wayne media market 63-31 percent; in South Bend 66-31 percent; Indianapolis 65-29 percent; Louisville 64-25 percent; while the Chicago market is tied at 44 percent. Thompson leads among African-Americans by only a 56-41 percent margin. Daniels’ standing with African-Americans has increased 14 percent since our August poll. Daniels is winning 37 percent of the Democratic vote – more than one in three – and among independents 64-21 percent.

Daniels is also getting 40 percent of the Obama vote. Gov. Daniels’ re-elect stood at 59/33 percent. Mitch Daniels re-elect support is among the strongest in the nation for a Republican holding a major office, Davis said.

Howey went on to say:

The numbers bear out our analysis: that the Thompson campaign is one of the worst gubernatorial campaigns we’ve ever witnessed.

If being 12% down in the South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll is “confidence” what is being down 31 percent?  That must be the “We’ve got them right where we want them” kind of feeling.

The poll didn’t just cover the governor’s race.  It also looked at the presidential race, the 3rd Congressional district race as well as a brief look at the two other statewide races.  The good and, what could be, very bad news after the leap.

A South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll released today finds Governor Daniels with a 12 point lead over Jill Long Thompson at 53% to 41%.  The margin of error was at 4%.

What did Jason Tomsci, the JLT campaign spokesperson have to say about the results?

“I don’t know if we necessarily know where the state of the race is at,” Tomsci said. “But we’re confident with where we are.”

Nothing says confidence like a 12 point deficit in the polls with a week to go.

Are you getting tired of all the polls? Interesting though, I’ve never been called. I guess roughly 2 million households with phones in our state, let’s say go back 4 elections, 10 major polls, 10 months per election, 4 weeks per month, making 3000 calls to get 1000 answers, registered (only 50% of population) … i should have a 3 in 1 chance of getting called. NEVER! Makes you wonder who they call? Who actually pick up?

18 year old on cell phone? Nope
Text message 20 year old at college about home election? Nope
Gather door to door input from 25 year old single woman who works two jobs? Nope
How about young family with caller ID who put kids down at 8:30 p.m.? Nope
I got it, retiree visiting grandkids during summer, then snowboarding after Thanksgiving? Nope
Employee at work? Nope

Who do the pollsters actually talk to? More eerie, do the polls tell people how to vote, because we’re such followers we tend to vote for the “winner” so we look cool?

(Read more after the leap)

Hey, ummm….where is Jill Long Thompson’s next ad?

Sometimes it’s easy to forget that Mitch Daniels has an opponent in the general election this year.  What with JLT having not been on tv with advertisements since late September and the fact that no new ideas to continue Indiana’s growth have crossed her lips and with her polls numbers consistently having her down in double digits (save for polls put out by the media….hmmmm…I’m not claiming any bias here, I just think they need a tight race to keep ratings up).

But one group decided that the Governor’s race was so important to the State of Indiana, that they were willing to make an endorsement in a state wide race for the first time in their 86 year history.  Today, the Indiana State Chamber of Commerce endorsed Mitch Daniels to serve Indiana for another term.

The Indiana Chamber of Commerce, the state’s largest broad-based business association, today announced its endorsement of Republican Mitch Daniels for governor. This marks the first time in the Chamber’s 86-year history that it has publicly endorsed a gubernatorial candidate.

“This was a decision we didn’t enter into lightly, but ultimately we felt that given the current, difficult economic times, we needed to make what is for us a historic stance with the governor’s race,” offers Indiana Chamber President Kevin Brinegar.

(Read the rest of the press release after the leap)

That pretty much describes Jill Long Thompson’s performance last night in the final gubernatorial debate of this election cycle.  Think that’s me just being partisan?  Guess again.

Matt Tully writes in his column today:

With a petty performance, Democrat Jill Long Thompson spoiled what could have been an insightful gubernatorial debate Tuesday evening.

The two other candidates in the debate, Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels and Libertarian Andrew Horning, actually provided plenty of insight and even a touch of introspection as they answered questions intended to give voters a glimpse into their leadership styles. But Long Thompson repeatedly used her response time to take out-of-place potshots at Daniels.

Tully went on to give positive performances of Governor Daniels (though noting one miscue in a comeback of his own to a Long Thompson attack that Tully also deemed petty) and Andy Horning, calling their portions of the debate insightful.

But one thing that came out of JLT’s attacks were out of the blue comments about investments of the state’s money in the stock market, specifically Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, claiming we’ve lost millions (or as one uninformed, supposedly objective commenter put it, “billions”).  As I mentioned on Abdul this morning, the Governor isn’t responsible for how our state’s money is invested.  And as Abdul rightly noted, only the State Treasurer can direct where the state’s money does go when it’s invested.

Bill Ruthhart, in his column, notes:

(Read more after the leap)

If you sat through tonight’s debate and hadn’t seen the other two, you didn’t miss anything.  Just a few highlights.

• For what seemed like the first half hour, we got everybody’s personal story (and I swear it seemed like for the the 5,000th time, we heard that JLT grew up on a farm, has a some high falutin’ degrees of some sort and she’s pretty ticked off about all the change that needs changing except it’s not change)
• Andy Horning mentioned the constitution in one single answer a total of eight times
• JLT’s ethics code while a congresswoman was to not drink the soft drinks the lobbyists provided at receptions.

That’s pretty much it. So let me plug my appearance on Abdul tomorrow morning.

I’m going to be on Abdul in the Morning tomorrow morning at 7:10am with Blue Indiana’s Thomas Cook to talk about the shindig in Bloomington this evening and to talk about tomorrow night’s final presidential debate.

So tune in WXNT 1430am at 7:10am or log on to the WXNT website to hear the live stream.

Already taking bets on how many times we hear: Toll Road, “I grew up on a farm” I-69, “I have Masters and a Ph. D.”, which horrendous shade of blue tonight’s pants suit will be and (not forgetting Andy) constitution.

The debate will be broadcast live by many Indiana radio and TV stations beginning at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

Click here to participate in the interactive live blog.