You’ve got to admire the brazen chutzpah of Evan Bayh. Even as he whines about the partisanship of Congress in announcing his retirement from the Senate, Bayh timed his departure to be the ultimate partisan act.

By leaving when he did, Bayh completely deprived hundreds of thousands of Hoosier Democrats of the chance to have a say in who will replace him. That decision will now be made by 32 of Bayh’s closest cronies on the Indiana Democratic Party’s State Committee.

Fred Barnes puts it well:

Did Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, who insists he favors more bipartisanship in Washington, schedule the announcement of his retirement to give his party a distinctly partisan advantage in picking a candidate to run for his seat? It sure looks like he did exactly that.

Indeed, Democratic strategists and party officials in Indiana were full of praise for Bayh for delivering his announcement less than 24 hours before the filing deadline for candidates. This means party leaders–32 of them–will pick a candidate (by June 30), and a primary will be averted.

Bayh almost certainly knew exactly what he was doing. He is the most important Democrat in Indiana and one of his close associates, state party chairman Dan Parker, will lead the panel that chooses the Democratic candidate for Senate.

And Bayh is very familiar with the state’s election law. His first elected office was Indiana secretary of state, the official who’s in charge of elections.

Politico, the Washington-based political newspaper, quoted Indiana Democrats as saying the timing of Bayh’s announcement was beneficial to their party. “I’m sure Sen. Bayh was well aware of the need for the party to have as much input as possible,” Marion County Democratic chairman Edward Treacy told Politico. “He knew what he was doing.”

The ABC News affiliate in Indianapolis, WRTV, said “Democratic sources” told the station tell that “Sen. Bayh waited ‘til the last minute to prevent other Democrats from entering the race and that also means keeping people out who might not have really had a chance at winning the general election.”

Think about that last line again:

“Democratic sources” told the station tell that “Sen. Bayh waited ‘til the last minute to prevent other Democrats from entering the race and that also means keeping people out who might not have really had a chance at winning the general election.”

Translation: Democratic sources said Evan Bayh wanted until the last minute to prevent Hoosier Democratic primary voters from electing someone (generally liberal and left of the Hoosier mainstream) like themselves.

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Our gift came a day late, but it seems that Evan Bayh read our breakup letter and decided to leave the relationship before we ended it in November.  I can’t say that I am surprised by the announcement.  While Bayh claims that “[e]ven in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election,” the people standing outside his offices with proverbial torches and pitchforks have told a different story.  I believe his support for the health care bill in Congress would have ensured a loss in November.

I take two things from Senator Bayh’s announcement today:

1.  I believe this is a way for Senator Bayh to save face from a potential walloping in November and hopefully keep his name out there for a future cabinet appointment, a spot on a future Democratic ticket for vice-president or a potential Presidential run of his own.

2. My other thought on the motivation for Bayh’s abrupt retirement is also tied into his future political aspirations.  Without an election to win in November, Senator Bayh will not have an electorate at home to appease and he will be free to vote for a potential health care bill without fearing for his seat.   He knows that the health care bill in Congress is not popular in Indiana, but voting for it would be a good quality for a future run for higher office on the Democrat ticket.

I make no attempt to know what is in a person’s heart, but judging by his past actions and propensity toward doing what is right for himself rather than the people of Indiana, I believe there is more to this story than meets the eye.  Keep the pressure on Bayh, Lugar and all the other Senators to vote against this health care bill.  I assure you that Harry Reid (who might also be making an exit from the Senate come November) would love to make use of Bayh no longer having an election to win in Indiana in an attempt to pass this health care bill.

And now that the Democrat side of the ticket is open, there are already names floating for the Democrat Nomination:

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Jill Long Thompson, who ran the worst gubernatorial campaign in Indiana in my lifetime, is being considered for agriculture secretary in the Obama cabinet (well, she is unemployed…).

Joe Andrew, who stabbed Evan Bayh and the Indiana Democratic machine in the back by endorsing Obama right before Indiana’s primary, hasn’t gotten anything (perhaps an ambassadorship to France or some other suitably ironic country will soon be in the offing).

Baron Hill, who likewise endorsed Obama (and took a huge risk in his district doing it), hasn’t gotten anything either (he may not even want anything; hard to say).

A reader emailed me parodying The One and Obamassiah memes of the campaign and quoting Lincoln’s second inaugural:

But still it must be said “the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether.”

If the latest Howey/Gauge Market Research poll says anything about the Governor’s race, it’s that it’s essentially over and Jill Long Thompson’s campaign is D.O.A. for election day.

According to HPI:

Daniels is poised for a resounding victory. The governor leads in the Fort Wayne media market 63-31 percent; in South Bend 66-31 percent; Indianapolis 65-29 percent; Louisville 64-25 percent; while the Chicago market is tied at 44 percent. Thompson leads among African-Americans by only a 56-41 percent margin. Daniels’ standing with African-Americans has increased 14 percent since our August poll. Daniels is winning 37 percent of the Democratic vote – more than one in three – and among independents 64-21 percent.

Daniels is also getting 40 percent of the Obama vote. Gov. Daniels’ re-elect stood at 59/33 percent. Mitch Daniels re-elect support is among the strongest in the nation for a Republican holding a major office, Davis said.

Howey went on to say:

The numbers bear out our analysis: that the Thompson campaign is one of the worst gubernatorial campaigns we’ve ever witnessed.

If being 12% down in the South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll is “confidence” what is being down 31 percent?  That must be the “We’ve got them right where we want them” kind of feeling.

The poll didn’t just cover the governor’s race.  It also looked at the presidential race, the 3rd Congressional district race as well as a brief look at the two other statewide races.  The good and, what could be, very bad news after the leap.

A South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll released today finds Governor Daniels with a 12 point lead over Jill Long Thompson at 53% to 41%.  The margin of error was at 4%.

What did Jason Tomsci, the JLT campaign spokesperson have to say about the results?

“I don’t know if we necessarily know where the state of the race is at,” Tomsci said. “But we’re confident with where we are.”

Nothing says confidence like a 12 point deficit in the polls with a week to go.

Sometimes it’s easy to forget that Mitch Daniels has an opponent in the general election this year.  What with JLT having not been on tv with advertisements since late September and the fact that no new ideas to continue Indiana’s growth have crossed her lips and with her polls numbers consistently having her down in double digits (save for polls put out by the media….hmmmm…I’m not claiming any bias here, I just think they need a tight race to keep ratings up).

But one group decided that the Governor’s race was so important to the State of Indiana, that they were willing to make an endorsement in a state wide race for the first time in their 86 year history.  Today, the Indiana State Chamber of Commerce endorsed Mitch Daniels to serve Indiana for another term.

The Indiana Chamber of Commerce, the state’s largest broad-based business association, today announced its endorsement of Republican Mitch Daniels for governor. This marks the first time in the Chamber’s 86-year history that it has publicly endorsed a gubernatorial candidate.

“This was a decision we didn’t enter into lightly, but ultimately we felt that given the current, difficult economic times, we needed to make what is for us a historic stance with the governor’s race,” offers Indiana Chamber President Kevin Brinegar.

(Read the rest of the press release after the leap)

Of course, that will be 2012, not in 2008.

To put this in some perspective, it costs $350,000 to run a week of television in every media market in the state of Indiana. Jill Long Thompson, with her $246,000 cash on hand, doesn’t have enough money to be on the air for one five-day workweek, let alone the three full weeks that are left.

Linda Pence, the Democrat candidate for attorney general, has two and a half times as much money on hand ($640,000) than Jill Long Thompson.

Becky Skillman, the Lieutenant Governor, has more than $340,000 cash on hand. If money matters in politics (and as a practical consideration in big races it does), then it would seem that Becky Skillman is more likely to replace Mitch Daniels as governor of Indiana than Jill Long Thompson.

And that transition will be in four years, not this coming January.

If you sat through tonight’s debate and hadn’t seen the other two, you didn’t miss anything.  Just a few highlights.

• For what seemed like the first half hour, we got everybody’s personal story (and I swear it seemed like for the the 5,000th time, we heard that JLT grew up on a farm, has a some high falutin’ degrees of some sort and she’s pretty ticked off about all the change that needs changing except it’s not change)
• Andy Horning mentioned the constitution in one single answer a total of eight times
• JLT’s ethics code while a congresswoman was to not drink the soft drinks the lobbyists provided at receptions.

That’s pretty much it. So let me plug my appearance on Abdul tomorrow morning.

I’m going to be on Abdul in the Morning tomorrow morning at 7:10am with Blue Indiana’s Thomas Cook to talk about the shindig in Bloomington this evening and to talk about tomorrow night’s final presidential debate.

So tune in WXNT 1430am at 7:10am or log on to the WXNT website to hear the live stream.

In light of tonight’s debate, it’s worth remembering a few details.

Already taking bets on how many times we hear: Toll Road, “I grew up on a farm” I-69, “I have Masters and a Ph. D.”, which horrendous shade of blue tonight’s pants suit will be and (not forgetting Andy) constitution.

The debate will be broadcast live by many Indiana radio and TV stations beginning at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

Click here to participate in the interactive live blog.

It looks like JLT, realizing that without TV commercials she’s going to have to multiply herself, has employed our favorite surrogate out in the state. John Cardwell has been touring the state blabbering more about FSSA. See articles here and here.

I’ve covered extensively Mr. Cardwell’s fake interest group- the Indiana Home Care Task Force, as well as his union connections. Mr. Cardwell is also a contributor to Jill Long Thompson (he’s given at least $700 to Mitch’s opponents). Why can’t the media do the basic examination we have?

As previously reported, the “task force” is a one-man shell game only the founders of Enron could have accomplished.  The closest thing we could find to a membership roster as reported in the Kokomo Perspective: Legislative Commission coming to Kokomo:

Within the Task Force, organizations such as United Senior Action, Indiana Alliance for Retired Americans, ACLU, The Generations Project, and Hoosiers First have taken a leading role in addressing the privatization issue.

Now, who runs these organizations?

(Read more after the leap)